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Forecast of the Development of the Politico-Security Environment from the Perspective of the Interests of the Czech Republic 2016 – 2019

The research project with the participation of twenty-four experts from the Czech security and intelligence community is answering the question regarding which factors will have the main impact on the European politico-security environment from the perspective of the public interests of the Czech Republic between 2016 and 2019. In the next three years, we expect the most complicated development of the political, social, and security environment in Europe since the past several decades.

We consider the watershed events to be: elections in three allied countries (Germany, France, USA), actions of an aggressive third country (Russia), and non-state terrorist players (Islamic State, global jihadi movement). These phenomena could completely destabilise the institutional environment of Europe and, as a direct result, the Czech Republic. On the other hand, we do not expect Brexit to have a major direct or indirect impact on the Czech Republic.

Next to the disastrous projection based on the expert estimates of the development of individual phenomena, four forecasts have been created which, in the case of coming true, would mean a breaking point for the whole politico-security system which the Czech Republic is a part of. These are the so-called game-changers. The responsible politicians must prepare the Czech state and the Czech people for the case of their eventual occurrence.