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What is happening?
It has not been an easy year for Shigeru Ishiba. Last September, his dream finally came true when, on his fifth attempt, he won the leadership race of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). At that time, the LDP held a majority in both chambers of the National Diet, so he was formally elected prime minister the following October. Yet Ishiba’s dream soon turned into a nightmare. In the same month, the LDP lost its majority in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Diet. In November, Ishiba was re-elected prime minister, but in charge of a minority government formed with the LDP’s coalition partner, Komeito, which meant having to find compromises with opposition parties — no easy task. The situation became even more complicated in July, when the LDP also lost its majority in the House of Councillors, the Diet’s upper house, which heightened pressure within the LDP on Ishiba to step down. Although polls showed a growing share of the public believed he did not need to resign, he announced his resignation on September 7. The question now is who will replace Ishiba, and whether that person can solve both the LDP’s and Japan’s problems.
What is the broader picture?
When Ishiba became the LDP’s president and Japan’s prime minister, his party was struggling to recover from a political funding scandal and the extremely low approval ratings of his predecessor, Fumio Kishida. Ishiba, a former LDP Secretary-General, seemed like the right choice. He was leading public opinion polls and did not lack political experience, having served as Defense Minister as well as Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries. He pledged to restore the LDP’s credibility and “create a new Japan,” while addressing inflation, low wages, and demographic decline.
One year is a relatively short time to solve such issues, especially when there is a lower house election during your first month and an upper house election during the tenth. In addition, Ishiba’s Cabinet had to handle difficult tariff negotiations with the United States, which Ishiba described as a “national crisis.” Although the trade deal was finalized early this September, it was too late and not enough to make up for the LDP’s election losses. One day before the party was expected to decide whether to hold a special leadership contest, Ishiba announced his resignation, saying that the trade deal gave him a sense of closure and that he wanted to avoid divisions within the party.
Why does it matter?
Ishiba was elected LDP president on September 27 last year, and 12 months later, on October 4, his party will once again be looking for a new savior. The list of possible candidates includes two former economic security ministers Takayuki Kobayashi and Sanae Takaichi, former LDP secretary-general Toshimitsu Motegi, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi. The question is whether any of them will be able to reverse the LDP’s decline. For decades, the LDP’s position seemed almost unshakable, but times are changing, and as Japan faces numerous challenges, voters (especially younger generations) are beginning to look for alternatives, as the most recent upper house election showed.
However, who becomes Japan’s next leader should matter not only to Japanese audiences but also to international ones, because Japan is not only a vital partner to the United States in the Indo-Pacific, but the globally deteriorating security environment is also drawing it closer to Europe. This is illustrated by the deployment of its F-15J fighters to Europe and the United Kingdom for the first time, Japan’s participation in the Global Combat Air Programme (a trilateral effort with the United Kingdom and Italy to build a sixth-generation fighter aircraft), or its declared intention to reinforce collaboration with Central European countries, such as the Czech Republic and Poland.