What is happening?
On August 14, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that he would not run in the next leadership election of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). While he has been quite successful in international affairs, he has faced several challenges on the domestic front, including various LDP scandals, high inflation, and a weakening yen, which have led to a steep decline in public support for his Cabinet. The winner of the upcoming September leadership election will not only become the new Prime Minister of Japan but also the party leader, heading into next year’s general election. By changing its leadership now, the LDP aims to ensure that it maintains its dominant position in Japanese political ecosystem.
What is the broader picture?
When Kishida assumed office in 2021, he vowed to lead Japan out of the COVID-19 crisis, but there were many more challenges ahead of him. The pandemic and its aftermath exacerbated the deflation Japan has been fighting for decades. Consumer prices have been steadily rising, while wages have remained low, fueling another long-term problem: low birthrates and a declining population. In 2023, the number of births fell to its lowest point since records began in 1899. At the same, the population decline accelerated, reaching 831,872 in last year. Meanwhile, a weakening yen may have made Japan a more attractive tourist destination, but — combined with other factors — it has also seen the country replaced by Germany as the world’s third largest economy. Both Germany and Japan are expected to soon be overtaken by India, which would push Japan even lower in the global rankings. Public dissatisfaction has been further stoked by a political funding scandal involving the LDP, which evolved into one of the country’s biggest corruption cases in decades. As a result, the Cabinet’s approval rating in July was only 15.5 percent, while the disapproval rating stood at 58.4 percent.
It is important to note that Kishida’s administration did try to tackle these issues. It promoted wage increases and investment to end 30 years of deflation, implemented large-scale measures to address the declining birthrate, dissolved LDP factions and punished lawmakers involved in the funding scandal, and revised the political funds control law. But in the end, Kishida concluded that, “The first easy-to-understand step that indicates that the LDP will change is for me to step back.”
Izumi Kenta, leader of the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, responded by stating that the LDP has repeatedly used the tactic of changing its leader during times of crisis to ensure the survival of the party. The public, he cautioned, must not fall for this trick.
Why does it matter?
Compared to his standing in domestic politics, Kishida’s star on the international stage shines much brighter, also thanks to his past role as foreign minister. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Japan was one of the first countries to impose sanctions on Moscow and to pledge humanitarian aid to Kyiv. As prime minister, he visited Ukraine in March 2023, touring the town of Bucha and expressing “great anger” at the massacre of more than 400 civilians a year earlier. His statement that, “Ukraine of today may be East Asia of tomorrow” has become widely recognized and frequently quoted.
Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, acknowledged Kishida’s role in strengthening US-Japan relations. “Today, the alliance is stronger and more secure than at any time in its 64-year history,” posted Emanuel on social media, adding that Kishida had “helped build a latticework of security alliances and partnerships across the Indo-Pacific region that will stand the test of time.” Examples of this are the strengthening of trilateral cooperation between Japan, the US, and the Philippines, as well as Tokyo and Washington’s bolstering of relations with South Korea through a similar three-way partnership. In particular, Tokyo’s historically — at best — lukewarm relations with Seoul have significantly improved thanks to the efforts of Kishida and South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol. Kishida’s international accomplishments thus outweigh some of his more controversial policies, such as the release of radioactive water from Fukushima.
While there is insufficient space here to cover all the ups and downs of Kishida’s premiership, one thing is clear: His successor, like the incumbent himself three years ago, won’t have an easy time ahead — the bar will be high in international affairs, while domestic challenges will remain.
