Illustration: Canva
What is happening?
Until last year, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) seemed politically unshakeable. In power almost continuously since 1955, it weathered scandals with relative ease, shielded by a fragmented opposition. Japan, for the most part, remained a so-called one-party democracy under its leadership. But that era may be ending. After losing majority in the House of Representatives (Japanese National Diet’s lower chamber) last October, the LDP has now lost its majority in the House of Councilors (the upper chamber)—marking the first time in its 70-year history that it lacks control of both chambers. And new challengers are on the rise!
What is the broader picture?
There are 248 seats in the Upper House of the National Diet. Councilors are elected for six years, and every three years, 121 seats are up for election. The LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito needed to win 50 seats to maintain their majority, but secured only 47. However, what drew attention after this election was not just who lost seats, but also who gained them, particularly in the case of the opposition party Sanseito.
Founded in 2020, Sanseito is a right-wing populist party opposing immigration, COVID-19 measures, and Japan’s postwar constitution. Its messaging—nationalist, anti-globalist, and nostalgic—resonates particularly with disaffected youth. The party’s catchphrase, “Japanese First,” echoing Trump’s rhetoric, appeals to those who feel alienated by Japan’s pandemic policies, rising overtourism, and international aid priorities. In this election, Sanseito surged from two to fifteen seats, becoming the sixth-largest party in the chamber.
Sanseito is a movement party that finds its roots in the social media discourse of disenchanted youth. It began with pandemic fatigue, including the obligation to wear masks, but continues to this day due to the ongoing economic malaise, record-breaking numbers of inbound tourists, and Japan’s continued support to foreign countries like Ukraine. All of this makes the party’s supporters feel that foreigners receive better treatment than Japanese citizens and that the country’s culture is rapidly changing.
The Upper House election showed that to many people, the LDP represents ‘the old guard of Japanese politics’, prompting young voters and those dissatisfied with the status quo to seek alternatives. About twice as many people in their teens to their 30s voted for Sanseito compared to those who chose the LDP, and also 15 percent of unaffiliated voters supported Sanseito, compared to 12 percent who backed the LDP.
Why does it matter?
Shigeru Ishiba was elected LDP leader last September to restore credibility after a major corruption scandal. Framing himself as a reformist seeking to “create a new Japan,” he pledged to tackle inflation, low wages, and demographic decline. At that time 67 (now 68) years old, Ishiba was supposed to secure votes by representing a wind of change within the LDP. Yet in under a year, the LDP has lost its dominant role in both houses. Sanseito’s leader, Sohei Kamiya (47), sees an opening for a European-style coalition of small parties if his bloc continues to grow.
Despite the letdown in the Upper House election, Ishiba has pledged to stay in office and continue seeking consensus with opposition parties on a policy-by-policy basis. However, calls are growing within the LDP, including its Youth Division, for Ishiba and other party executives to step down, or to at least convene an official meeting to discuss his responsibility for the party’s defeat. Ishiba’s opponents from last year’s party presidential election are now also gaining more attention.
Ishiba wanted to create a new Japan, and it seems that one is indeed being created. The question is if, and for how long, the LDP and Ishiba himself will remain part of that process.