What is happening?
On September 27, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elected its former Secretary-General, Shigeru Ishiba, as the new president. Since the LDP is the main ruling party in the Liberal Democratic–Komeito coalition, which holds a comfortable majority, Ishiba was also elected as the new Prime Minister just a few days later on October 1. His predecessor, Fumio Kishida, decided not to run for a second term in light of several scandals in the LDP and mounting domestic political challenges. The abysmally low approval ratings for the Kishida Cabinet jeopardized the LDP’s long-standing dominance in Japanese politics. During the leadership race, Ishiba pledged to restore public trust in politics. To this end, one of his first decisions was to dissolve the Lower House of the National Diet on October 9 and call a snap election for October 27, a year ahead of schedule.
What is the broader picture?
The Japanese general election was initially scheduled for October 2025. However, the Japanese Prime Minister can dissolve the Lower House at any time within the given timeframe. Ishiba’s decision marks the shortest period between a prime minister taking office and the dissolution of the Lower House in Japan’s postwar history. He justified this move by stating that to “create a new Japan” and to “boldly carry out this major change,” he needed “the confidence of the people.”
As noble as it sounds, the snap election is also a strategic decision. On one side, the LDP is attempting to repair the reputational damage it has suffered in recent years and restore the trust of the Japanese people in politics. This is why many candidates in the LDP leadership race, including Ishiba, emphasized the need for reforms and change. On the other side, however, the snap election is about seeking public approval and using the momentum of Ishiba’s “honeymoon popularity” and fragmented opposition, which gives the current Liberal Democratic–Komeito coalition a very high chance of being re-elected and strengthening its position through a newly reconfirmed democratic mandate.
Why does it matter?
The outcome of the upcoming early general election, with the campaign set to start on October 15, will be crucial in determining Japan’s role in the Indo-Pacific in the coming years. Shigeru Ishiba is now highly likely to retain his newly acquired premiership. As a former Defense Minister who describes himself as a defense otaku, he is expected to focus on defense and security-related issues, including increased defense spending. He stated: “As exemplified by China and Russia’s airspace incursions and North Korea’s repeated missile launches, Japan is facing the most severe, complex security environment since the end of World War II.” This is also why he advocates for creating a regional military alliance similar to NATO.
Apart from regional security challenges, Ishiba also aims to address domestic issues, including reforms within the LDP and broader political reforms, economic measures to ensure that “Japan’s economy emerges from deflation,” and initiatives to tackle the demographic crisis of rapidly shrinking population, which Ishiba describes as a “quiet emergency.”
Japan could undoubtedly feel a wind of change, but only time will tell whether Ishiba or someone else will deliver it.
