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What is happening?
In his New Year’s greetings to the public, Emperor Naruhito expressed concern about the difficulties many Japanese are facing following last year’s natural disasters and said he hopes that 2026 will be a “peaceful and good year” for people in Japan as well as around the world. However, it has not been an easy start to the new year for Japan, and with challenges ahead, such as ongoing tensions with China and the overall security situation in the Indo-Pacific, the pace shows no signs of slowing.
What is the broader picture?
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi started the year with a phone call to U.S. President Donald Trump. She said that 2026 should open a new chapter in the Japan–US alliance, with significantly enhanced cooperation, particularly in the fields of the economy and security. Both leaders agreed on continued cooperation with like-minded countries such as South Korea to support the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. Trump also invited Takaichi to the United States, with a visit slated for spring.
Takaichi then officially kicked off the new year with a news conference, where she addressed both current developments and future goals. On Venezuela, she commented that Japan’s priorities are to ensure the safety of Japanese nationals and stabilize the situation in cooperation with G7 countries and regional players.
Reporters asked her about dissolving the Lower House, as she has not yet faced a national election as prime minister (having succeeded her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, in October 2025). She did not mention a potential snap election but replied that her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), have built a foundation and will continue to call on opposition parties to cooperate. Since then, Japanese media have reported that the prime minister is eyeing January 23 as a potential date for dissolving the Lower House.
Takaichi’s coalition government continues to enjoy high approval ratings. Calling a snap election could therefore potentially help the LDP recover from the significant losses it suffered over the past two years. On the other hand, Takaichi’s party stands on much shakier ground than her Cabinet. While the latter currently enjoys a 64% approval rating, the party at large lags far behind with just 30.6% support. This probably explains why she is now focusing more on economic policies, such as tackling rising prices.
One reason for the high approval ratings is Takaichi’s firm stance on China. Beijing has taken several measures vis-à-vis Japan following Takaichi’s remarks last November, hinting that Japan might become involved if China attempted to forcibly change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Despite Chinese pressure, the Japanese government did not retract the remarks, although Takaichi said she wants to build a constructive and stable relationship with China and that Tokyo will maintain communication with Beijing.
This, however, will continue to be difficult. On January 6, just one day after Takaichi’s news conference, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced a ban on exports of dual-use items to Japan that could be used to strengthen its military, citing Chinese national security interests. At the same time, the statement did not specify which items would fall under the new export controls, sparking debate in Japan about possible consequences for its economy, especially as relates to rare earths, around 60 percent of which are imported from China.
Why does it matter?
In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and Moscow’s deepening cooperation with China and North Korea, Japan has revised its approach to defense and security in recent years. In 2022, it decided to gradually double its defense budget from 1% to 2% of GDP and adopted three key documents: the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Buildup Program.
In her first press conference of the year, Takaichi said her plan is to revise all three documents within the year due to the rapidly changing security environment. Her Cabinet also approved a record-large defense budget for the fiscal year starting this April, including a 3.8 percent increase in annual military spending to 9 trillion yen (about US$58 billion). China’s state-run Xinhua news agency described Japan’s readjusted approach to its security policy as “alarming.”
Japan thus faces a long list of New Year’s resolutions, covering serious domestic as well as international issues. The price of keeping them will be high, but the price of breaking them would be even higher.