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What is happening?
Throughout October, Japan and the United States have been reaffirming and strengthening their partnership in the Indo-Pacific, including diplomatic agreements, foreign assistance, cooperation in economic security, and beyond. However, despite these positive interactions, meetings between officials from two countries have taken place amid another case involving one of the most sensitive issues in the bilateral relationship: the U.S. military presence in Okinawa, where a U.S. Marine has been arrested on suspicion of killing and robbing a local woman.
What is the broader picture?
On October 8, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and 12 U.S. envoys to the Indo-Pacific, including the ambassadors to Japan and China as well as the director of the American Institute in Taiwan, confirmed that Japan and the US would continue to cooperate for regional stability and prosperity. Motegi stressed that the Japan-U.S. alliance has become increasingly important as the regional security environment grows more tense, while the American representatives reaffirmed their unwavering commitment to the region.
Four days later, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Allison Hooker and Japanese Senior Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs Hiroyuki Namazu held the second U.S.-Japan Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) Dialogue. Their meeting marked the 10th anniversary of the FOIP vision, introduced by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2016 and updated this year by current Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
The two sides discussed how to coordinate their foreign and security assistance in priority countries, with practical examples including the Luzon Economic Corridor in the Philippines, the Japan-U.S. Mekong Power Partnership, and maritime security awareness in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands. They also reviewed progress in economic security, digital connectivity, energy security, and defense industrial cooperation. In terms of broader international security, they discussed closer cooperation with Indo-Pacific partners, as well as Japan’s growing cooperation with NATO.
However, amid these agreements and reaffirmations, the case involving the killing and robbery of a local woman in Okinawa loomed in the background. The incident took place on October 3, with the suspect arrested the following day. Calling the crime “heinous,” Takaichi demanded stricter discipline among U.S. military personnel and measures to prevent a recurrence. During the aforementioned meeting with U.S. envoys, Motegi also highlighted the importance of preventing similar incidents.
The U.S. Embassy in Tokyo and the Marine Corps extended their condolences to the victim’s family and said that they were fully cooperating with the Japanese authorities. In addition, as of October 9, all U.S. service personnel in Okinawa were subject to a 30-day curfew between midnight and 5 a.m.
Why does it matter?
Following World War II, Japan and the US transformed from principal adversaries into close allies. However, Okinawa is among the parts of Japan that paid the highest price for peace. It not only suffered heavily during the Battle of Okinawa, as WWII was nearing its end, but also remained under U.S. occupation until 1972 and served as a strategic military hub during both the Korean and Vietnam wars. To this day, Okinawa Prefecture hosts around 70% of all U.S. military facilities in Japan, which continues to cause considerable resentment among the local populace.
Washington argues that a U.S. military presence is essential to defending Japan and maintaining regional stability, given Okinawa’s strategic location. However, there have been tangible negative consequences, including noise pollution, environmental damage, and crime. To make matters worse, the number of criminal cases involving U.S. military personnel has increased in recent years, rising from about 40 in 2020 to 101 in 2025.
These drawbacks feed into Chinese propaganda narratives. On the other hand, China’s growing regional assertiveness, combined with deepening cooperation with other regional actors such as Russia and North Korea, are among the reasons Japan, the US and like-minded Indo-Pacific countries, are deepening their relationships in the first place. China exploits negative experiences stemming from U.S.-Japan relations to stoke Okinawa independence movement, while Chinese state-owned media frames Japan’s growing defense spending, the development of regional alliances, and its more proactive international engagement through initiatives such as FOIP as forms of “military expansion.”
Okinawa thus remains one of the most strategically important, yet also most vulnerable points in U.S.-Japan relations. How Tokyo and Washington navigate this sensitive aspect of their relations will be key to ensuring the continued stability of the Japan-U.S. alliance.