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What is happening?
While summer is generally the season where things slow down, China has picked up the pace in the Indo-Pacific waters, keeping others busy as well. In June, it intensified patrols east of Taiwan, dispatched a maritime survey vessel to the area, and sent two Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) ships into the Japanese exclusive economic zone (EEZ), claiming jurisdiction. Following up in July, China launched a nuclear-capable ballistic missile into the South Pacific, while its navy conducted a joint exercise and maritime patrol with its Russian counterpart. This included a Chinese live-fire exercise within Japan’s EEZ. Additionally, this month witnessed yet another encounter between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.
What is the broader picture?
China’s long-time growing assertiveness in the region has been driving other countries closer together and toward greater security and defense cooperation. These steps, however, have prompted China to escalate further. The ballistic missile test came shortly after Australia and Fiji signed two agreements that could reshape Pacific security. Many of China’s recent activities are linked to deepening cooperation between Japan and the Philippines, including negotiations on the delimitation of their EEZs, which overlap with waters claimed by Taiwan, and therefore by China as well, since Beijing views Taiwan as part of its territory.
The most recent joint exercise between China and Russia in Japan’s EEZ included two Chinese navy missile destroyers and a supply ship, along with a Russian navy frigate. One of the Chinese missile destroyers conducted the live-fire exercise with machine guns on July 19, about 180 kilometers southwest of Okinotorishima, Japan’s southernmost island. The Japanese Ministry of Defense said this was the first time it had publicly announced a case of a foreign vessel conducting a live-fire exercise within Japan’s EEZ and expressed concern that such exercises could endanger vessels in nearby waters.
China rejected Japan’s concerns, noting that both the joint exercise and the live-fire drill had been announced in advance. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also argued that Okinotorishima is not an island but a rock and is therefore not entitled to an EEZ, adding that Beijing’s activities are consistent with international law. It also accused Tokyo of stoking fears of an external threat as a pretext to justify Japan’s remilitarization and challenge the post-war international order.
In the case of the Philippines, the latest incidents with China began on July 20 during an encounter between the CCG and the Philippine Navy in the contested waters of the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. During the skirmish, CCG personnel attacked Philippine Navy personnel with a wooden baton, though the CCG claims that the Philippine contingent instigated the incident. Three days later, the Philippines accused the CCG of firing a water cannon at a government fisheries vessel near the disputed Scarborough Shoal. China justified its actions by claiming sovereignty over the disputed area, describing the Filipino presence as “infringing and provocative actions.” Calling China’s actions in the South China Sea “disturbing,”U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed Washington’s defense commitments to the Philippines.
Why does it matter?
Symbolically, all of this is happening exactly 10 years after the South China Sea Arbitration Ruling of 2016. The Philippines won the case, which determined that most of China’s claims, including its nine-dash line (which encompasses almost the entire South China Sea, including the EEZs of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam), and its activities in Philippine waters were unlawful. Predictably, China rejected the ruling, calling it “null and void.”
Ten years later, Japan, the Philippines, the United States, and 11 other countries reiterated that China’s expansive maritime claims have no legal basis. China responded by repeating its claims and blaming other countries for undermining regional stability, citing, among other things, U.S. military deployments and what it described as Japanese provocations, including issues related to Taiwan.
Based on these developments, the vicious circle of action and reaction between China and regional actors is well established, setting the stage for another not-so-happy anniversary.