What is happening?
On March 27, Japan released a plan to evacuate people from the southwestern Sakishima Islands of Okinawa Prefecture in the event of emergencies, such as a contingency involving Taiwan. This is the first plan of its kind and includes measures for the potential evacuation of approximately 120,000 residents and tourists. The entire process would take about six days through the cooperation of the Japan Self-Defense Forces, the Japan Coast Guard, and the private sector. Evacuees would be transported to accommodations in Kyushu Island and Yamaguchi Prefecture. All residents from one district would ideally be transported to the same municipality to preserve their local communities. The basic guidelines are expected to be finalized in the fiscal year 2026.
What is the broader picture?
Okinawa is sometimes called the “Hawaii of Japan,” and its people are often associated with a strong culture of peace. Yet, the geographical location of the Ryukyu Islands on which Okinawa is located has not always been conducive to peaceful living. Situated between China and Japan, the Ryukyu Kingdom (1429–1879) was historically a tributary state of Chinese dynasties as well as a vassal state of Japan. In 1879, Japan seized control of the kingdom and established Okinawa Prefecture, which became a major military site during World War II. This April marked the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Okinawa (April 1 to June 22, 1945) which resulted in more than 200,000 deaths on the Japanese side. One in every four Okinawan residents was killed, including between 40,000 and 100,000 civilians, many of whom were forced by the Imperial Japanese Army to commit mass suicide. The tragic memory of this battle contributes to Okinawa’s complex relationship with the rest of Japan, as many Okinawans feel the central government has continuously sacrificed their interests for the benefit of the “mainland.”
Following WWII, Okinawa remained under US military control and served as a strategic hub during both the Korean and Vietnam wars. The US built several large bases on the island and, although the land was officially purchased, some of these acquisitions reportedly involved deception or coercion. Okinawa was returned to Japan in 1972, but even today, the prefecture hosts around 70% of all US military facilities in Japan. American officials argue that their military presence is essential to fulfilling obligations under the 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security — not only to defend Japan, but also to maintain stability in the Asia-Pacific region. Strategically located, Okinawa offers convenient access to the Korean Peninsula, China, Taiwan, and the Philippines, enabling rapid responses to both security threats and humanitarian emergencies. However, many Okinawans continue to protest the bases due to ongoing controversies such as noise pollution, crime, environmental damage, and safety concerns, not to mention deeply rooted pacifist sentiments. These problems combined with Okinawa’s complex history are used by Beijing to stoke the Okinawa independence movement, using propaganda and diplomatic outreach that could help set the stage for a potential Taiwan incursion.
Why does it matter?
The Japanese authorities are concerned that if Russia is “rewarded” for its invasion of Ukraine by retaining control over some of the territory it has occupied, it could set a dangerous precedent. It might embolden China to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by attempting to bring Taiwan under its control. There have already been warning signs, such as repeated Chinese naval exercises around Taiwan, including the most recent live-fire drills simulating strikes on key ports and energy infrastructure. A Taiwan contingency would carry serious implications for Japan, since the closest haven for Taiwanese refugees would be the Ryukyu Islands (the closest island of Yonaguni can be seen with the naked eye from Taiwan, weather permitting), and any violent escalation would pose a direct threat to people living there.
In response to these concerns, Japan has taken several measures. These include the decision to build shelters on the Sakishima Islands, upgrades to designated military facilities across the Ryukyu Islands, and the opening of a new garrison on Ishigaki Island, just 270 kilometers from Taiwan. The introduction of the evacuation plan has further expanded such efforts.
Despite this, current geopolitical developments indicate that, as much as Okinawans simply want to live in peace, they remain, to borrow from the title of Tim Marshall’s bestselling book, prisoners of geography.
