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What is happening?
Elections have become something of a national pastime in Japan of late. In 2024, the country held a general election, a nationwide vote for the House of Representatives — the National Diet’s lower house. Last year, the nationwide election for half of the seats in the House of Councillors, the parliament’s upper house, also took place. This year has already seen voters heading to the polls again, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved the lower house in January and called a snap election for February 8.
Please note that this article was written before the February 8 election and provides an overview of current developments in Japanese politics and society rather than a post-election analysis.
What is the broader picture?
Sanae Takaichi replaced her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, as president of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the country’s largest political party, and as Prime Minister of Japan last October. As Japan’s first female prime minister, she faced several challenges from the get-go, including doubts about how she would handle the role in a political system that remains largely male-dominated.
In October, she also had to deal with the breakup with the LDP’s junior coalition partner, Komeito, after 26 years. Having found a new ally in the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), the LDP secured the narrowest possible majority in the lower house.
In November, Takaichi’s remarks hinting at Japan’s potential involvement should China attempt to forcibly change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait caused a rift between Tokyo and Beijing that continues to fester. These developments came on top of Japan’s long-standing domestic problems, such as high inflation and extremely low birth rates.
Despite these challenges, Takaichi’s cabinet has performed relatively well so far, with approval ratings consistently around or above 60 percent. By comparison, the ratings of her predecessor Ishiba fell to around 20%, while Fumio Kishida before him dropped to as low as 14 percent. These low ratings were partly the result of the LDP’s 2023–2024 slush fund scandal, which occurred under Kishida’s leadership and contributed to the LDP losing its majority in both chambers under Ishiba in the subsequent elections, before Takaichi regained a slim majority in the lower house with the support of JIP. Given her strong approval ratings, early 2026 appeared to be the right moment to call a snap election and attempt to strengthen her coalition’s position. Takaichi justified her decision by stating that she was seeking a stronger mandate to implement necessary reforms.
According to a public opinion poll conducted by the Japanese public broadcaster NHK, the most important policy issue for voters was rising prices (41% of respondents), followed by declining birth rates (18%) and diplomacy and security (17%).
One of the reasons the LDP has dominated the Japanese political scene for most of the postwar period has been because of a consistently fragmented opposition. The LDP’s former partner Komeito and the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), sought to change this by forming the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) in January.
Interestingly, when the NHK poll asked respondents about their preferred balance of power, the largest share (32%) said they wanted the ruling and opposition camps to win roughly equal numbers of seats, essentially maintaining the status quo before the election. Meanwhile, 24% favored an LDP single-party majority, 22% preferred a majority for the ruling coalition, and only 11% hoped for an opposition majority.
Why does it matter?
Japan is a key actor in the Indo-Pacific region as well as on the global stage. It is the only Asian member of the G7, hosts a significant U.S. military presence, and is deeply involved in U.S.-led trilateral partnerships with like-minded countries such as South Korea and the Philippines. Japan’s territory forms a crucial part of the strategically important first island chain, and in the event of a Taiwan contingency, it would be the nearest country capable of intervening, even if only by providing refuge to people fleeing Taiwan.
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Japan has also become the largest Asian provider of aid to Kyiv and one of the top five donors worldwide. In addition, Tokyo has significantly expanded its defense cooperation with European partners. For these reasons, questions about who runs Japan and the stability of its government are vital to global security.
Post-election edit: The LDP achieved a historic win in the February 8 election, gaining a two-thirds majority in the Lower House.