What is happening?
Since the end of World War II, the U.S. has been a security guarantor for Japan and the allied parts of Europe. With President Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” (2009-2017), the U.S. began shifting its forces toward the Indo-Pacific, while Europe, enjoying an unprecedented era of peace, accepted the role of a Sleeping Beauty in the security area and even Russia aggression in Ukraine did not fully awaken it. Things began to change dramatically only after Donald Trump returned to the White House, as no U.S. ally can now be fully certain of security guarantees from Washington. This uncertainty has opened avenues for intensified security cooperation between seemingly distant partners, such as Europe and Japan.
What is the broader picture?
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Japan was one of the first countries to impose sanctions on Moscow. Regarding financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Japan ranks among the top five, following the U.S., European Union (EU) institutions, Germany, and the United Kingdom. After all, it was former Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida who coined the phrase that “Ukraine of today may be East Asia of tomorrow,” highlighting the concern that Russian success in Ukraine could encourage China to attempt changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, potentially leading to military conflict in East Asia.
If that were the case, Tokyo would be highly dependent on Washington. Article 9 of Japan’s constitution, heavily shaped by the U.S. during its post-World War II occupation, prohibits Tokyo from maintaining a traditional military force. Thus, Japan only has Self-Defense Forces (SDF), and its security is primarily guaranteed by the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty (1960). Japan is covered under the U.S. “nuclear umbrella,” and nearly 55,000 servicemembers are stationed across the country.
However, President Trump recently criticized the treaty, claiming it was unfair because it requires the U.S. to protect Japan. Still, Japan does not have to protect the U.S. and suggested revising the security pact. Furthermore, American CNN recently reported that based on a briefing document it obtained, the Pentagon could halt the planned expansion of U.S. Forces Japan, which was part of the Biden administration’s efforts to revamp military cooperation with Tokyo amid growing threats from China. Nevertheless, the document also warns that such a decision could create “political risk” for the U.S. in Japan and reduce its control in the Pacific.
The document also addresses Europe, explicitly discussing the potential merger of the U.S. European Command and U.S. Africa Command into a single command based in Germany. Even if only under discussion, this proposal reflects Europe’s position on the list of U.S. priorities. In Europe, the U.S. has been the main guarantor of security, particularly within the NATO framework. Still, Trump repeatedly stated that, regarding NATO member states, “If they don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them.” As of June 2024, 16 out of 23 NATO allies who are also EU member states have met the alliance’s defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP, up from only nine states in 2023.
Why does it matter?
Recent developments show that the U.S. stance can change dramatically daily, prompting its allies to increase their defense spending and strengthen cooperation with other like-minded partners. In 2022, Japan adopted three security-related strategic documents and announced plans to double its defense spending to 2% of its GDP by 2027, aligning with NATO’s target. This March, the European Commission unveiled the White Paper for European Defense and the ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030 to enhance the EU’s defense capabilities in response to evolving security challenges.
One of the three documents Japan adopted in 2022 is its National Defense Strategy, which emphasizes reinforcing collaboration with European countries, including the Nordic-Baltic states, the Czech Republic, and Poland. As Japan increases its involvement in Europe, it also calls for greater European engagement in Asia-Pacific security, including economic security and the fight against information manipulation, as highlighted by Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi at the last G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Canada. The ministers expressed concerns over growing military ties between North Korea and Russia and discussed support from North Korea, China, and Iran for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This shows the interconnection between European and Indo-Pacific security and the necessity of addressing issues collectively. One example of this collective effort is the two-day seminar, held jointly by Japan and the EU on March 25 and 26 in Bangkok, for Southeast Asian coast guard officials on handling “gray-zone situations” in response to Chinese government vessels repeatedly entering the territorial waters of other countries. As one source emphasized, there is a need for countries that share common values to cooperate in upholding the rule of law. In this unpredictable world, geography should not stand in the way of such cooperation.
