What is going on?
As the People’s Republic of China continues its grayzone operations against Taiwan, including regular sorties into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces are bolstering their defense spending and expanding their capabilities in the southwestern islands of Japan. The Ryukyu islands, of which Okinawa is the largest, stretch from Kyushu to Taiwan – consequently, they could potentially be involved in a Taiwan contingency. China reacted strongly to Japan’s military effort amid growing tensions, accusing Tokyo of destabilizing the region. Local populations in the Ryukyu arc express their concern about their home once again becoming a frontline for the defense of Japan.
What is the broader picture?
As China continues its belligerent behavior across the Asia-Pacific region, the Japanese government decided to act by increasing the budget and capabilities of the nation’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF). In December 2022, Japan unveiled its largest military buildup since World War II, pledging to double its defense budget within five years.
A potential Taiwan contingency is a source of particular concern for Tokyo. Consequently, in August 2023, it was reported that Japan would build shelters against blasts and shelling in Sakishima Islands. The total cost of the project is expected to be 120 million yen (US$825,102).
Beyond considerations about safety of the civilian population, there are also efforts to expand existing military facilities. The Japanese government designated 14 airports and 19 ports for improvement, including 16 facilities in the Ryukyu Islands. Additionally, in March 2023, a new garrison opened in March on Ishigaki Island in south Okinawa, merely 270 kilometers from Taiwan.
Why does it matter?
The efforts towards a military build-up in this part of Japan should also be considered as a potential source of intra-national tension. According to a 2023 government poll on the perception of Japan’s security environment, the support for the Japanese SDF continues to increase nationwide. 90.8 percent of respondents of all ages answered that they had a good impression of the SDF. In particular, the young generation between the ages of 18 and 29 demonstrated the highest levels of support, with 93.5 percent saying they had a positive impression. Additionally, 86.2 percent of respondents claimed that considering the current world situation, there is a danger that Japan will become involved in a war. At the same time, the Ryukyu islands remain culturally and politically distant from the main islands of Kyushu and Honshu, and particularly in Okinawa, there is a strong movement against US military bases due to environmental degradation and gender-based violence. Consequently, more attention should be dedicated to gauging public opinion in the Ryukyuan islands regarding the expansion of SDF capabilities.
