Photo by EVC
An escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait—whether it transpires as a maritime blockade or a kinetic attack—would bring about disastrous social and economic consequences. Given the importance of the Taiwan Strait to international maritime trade and Taiwan’s critical role in supply chains of strategic technologies, including semiconductors, crisis scenarios consider several grave repercussions. These include immediate disruptions to global economic activity valued at over two trillion dollars, threats to Japan’s energy security, and shortages in the EU, which would exacerbate economic inequality, poverty, and the functioning of critical sectors.
Simultaneously, a key group of actors directly responsible for Taiwan’s economic prosperity is frequently overlooked in Taiwan contingency scenarios – over 829 thousand migrant workers from Southeast Asia, over half of whom work in the manufacturing sector. These professionals, who hail mainly from Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand, would be directly affected by escalations in the Taiwan Strait, whether due to supply chain disruptions limiting the operations at their workplaces or the need to evacuate from the main island. Humanitarian concerns would be a priority for key ASEAN governments in the case of a contingency, and they should not remain ignored by policy analysts in Brussels, Washington, DC, and Tokyo.
Among the four countries, the Philippines is arguably most explicit about its preparations to protect its citizens in case of an escalation in the Taiwan Strait. In his April 1 speech commemorating the 38th anniversary of the Northern Luzon Command, Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff General Romeo Brawner said, “If something happens to Taiwan, inevitably we will be involved. There are 250,000 OFWs [Overseas Filipino Workers] working in Taiwan, and we will have to rescue them.” Facing maritime threats from China in the West Philippine Sea, Manila recently eased restrictions on official exchanges with Taiwan, and there are clear indications that both sides are working towards institutionalizing defense cooperation. While the Philippines’ newfound openness towards its northern neighbor can be understood within the context of its alliance with the United States, the humanitarian consequences of a contingency for its citizens are an equally important factor.
While other Southeast Asian countries remain more muted in their communication about the potential implications of the Taiwan Strait contingency, they emphasize the protection of their citizens as a pivotal consideration. In Jakarta, Judha Nugraha, the Director of Indonesian Citizens Protection Overseas at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, underscored the importance of preparations for evacuating Indonesian citizens, mainly migrant workers, from Taiwan.
The patterns of China’s increasingly belligerent behavior in the Taiwan Strait might have direct consequences for the physical safety and well-being of migrant workers. It is significant that, beyond manufacturing and care work, the sector which is most dependent on overseas laborers is Taiwan’s fishing industry – and approximately two-thirds of foreign fishers employed on Taiwanese vessels come from Indonesia. Beijing’s increasingly militarized coast guard continues to play a growing role in China’s grayzone tactics aimed at Taiwan, including intimidation of Taiwanese crews. The November 2024 incident of the Chinese Coast Guard detaining the crew of the Taiwanese fishing ship Tachinman 88, which included three Indonesian crew members, serves as a clear warning. While the Penghu-registered vessel was detained for illegal fishing, the incident demonstrates that migrant fishers could fall prey to political manipulation amid rising cross-strait tensions.
In September 2023, ASEAN conducted its first-ever exclusive joint military exercises. Hosted by Indonesia, the ASEAN Solidarity Exercise in Natuna 2023 (ASEX-01N) highlighted the timeliness of strengthening intra-grouping cooperation on maritime security issues, even if ASEAN is not a military alliance. Indeed, tensions in the South China Sea might serve as an explanation for why ASEAN decided to hold the drills. Nevertheless, as Indonesia emphasized the non-combat nature of the exercise, which included humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, it is critical to consider how such coordination plans could be put into practice at a time when Southeast Asian countries would need to evacuate their citizens from Taiwan.
The hedging behavior of many Southeast Asian countries, also known as “bamboo diplomacy,” may drive Bangkok, Hanoi, and Jakarta to subdue their communication about plans for a possible Taiwan contingency. Nevertheless, given the human cost of a potential escalation and the economic ramifications of disruptions in the flow of remittances from migrant workers in Taiwan, ASEAN capitals are paying close attention to developments in the Taiwan Strait. A Taiwan contingency would be a Southeast Asia contingency, and it is high time these so far overlooked stakeholders are given the merited seat at the table in conversations about effectively deterring Chinese aggression against the democratic island nation.
