Photo: Edited photo (color correction, cropping) originally by KOCIS / Korean Culture and Information Service, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.
What is happening?
On June 3, center-left candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party (DP) was elected president of South Korea with 49.4 percent of the vote, defeating conservative Kim Moon-soo (41.2 percent) of the People Power Party (PPP) in the wake of PPP President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment. The Constitutional Court upheld Yoon’s removal on April 4, setting the stage for a political reset after his controversial imposition of martial law in December 2024 sparked months of political crisis. While Lee’s win promises a clean slate in Seoul’s democratic governance, the bigger question is whether it marks a new beginning or the deepening of a “quiet crisis,” especially in the Republic of Korea’s foreign relations and the future of the U.S.–Korea alliance.
What is the broader picture?
Foreign policy remains one of the most contentious terrains in South Korean politics. The DP has traditionally favored strategic autonomy from the United States, reconciliation with North Korea, and a firm stance toward Japan. Lee sought to soften this profile during the campaign, but underlying tensions remain. His administration inherits not only a polarized public but a damaged alliance with the U.S.
In Washington, the inauguration of Donald Trump for a second term coincided with a leadership vacuum in Seoul. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth notably skipped South Korea on his first Indo-Pacific tour, while Trump revived threats of troop withdrawals and levied sweeping tariffs, including plans to impose 50 percent duties on Korean steel. With no stable government in Seoul, South Korea missed the window to lobby for exemptions, as other allies like Japan did.
This void has exacerbated doubts about U.S. commitments. Even before Yoon’s impeachment, polls had shown that 66 percent of South Koreans supported acquiring nuclear weapons. Now, even minor issues, like the surprise listing of South Korea on a U.S. sensitive export control list, reveal the cost of diplomatic inertia.
Domestically, a stark generational gender divide persists. Women in their 20s overwhelmingly supported Lee Jae-myung, while young men flocked to a third-party candidate, Lee Jun-seok, running on a platform that criticized gender equality and was hostile to the political establishment. The generational fracture underscores broader anxieties about institutional failure and societal stagnation.
Why is it important?
South Korea’s democratic resilience is central to its global identity. As one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies, it offers a stark contrast to the authoritarianism of its northern neighbor and presents an alternative model of development in the Indo-Pacific. Its political stability undergirds the country’s soft power and supports its role as a middle power in international diplomacy. Political instability, including leadership crises and partisan polarization, risks diminishing this influence and weakening South Korea’s capacity to navigate the challenges posed by a shifting U.S. policy, an emboldened China, and regional insecurity.
These developments also matter deeply to Central Europe. South Korea has become a strategic partner in key sectors. Poland, now a major buyer of Korean defense systems, views Seoul as a central partner in its military modernization. In Czechia, the government signed a deal in June with Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) to build two new nuclear reactors, marking a long-term partnership that helps facilitate Prague’s quest for energy security.
As President Lee begins his term, the challenge is twofold: rebuilding trust at home, and reasserting South Korea’s credibility abroad—especially as Trump’s Washington accelerates, often without waiting for allies to catch up.
