What is happening?
November 5, 2024, witnessed a historic comeback: citizens of the United States have once again elected Donald J. Trump as their president. Trump’s rule, and his foreign and security policy in particular, will have significant security and economic implications for the rest of the globe. Given the ongoing changes in the global security environment and Trump’s impulsiveness and incongruence with his statements and decisions, the Trump 2.0 presidency ushers in an era of uncertainty in global affairs.
What is the broader picture?
In his approach to the Indo-Pacific, President Joe Biden has prioritized fostering multilateralism and forming a lattice network of ad-hoc alliances and partnerships to contain China’s influence in the region. Given that the Trump 2.0 administration is expected to favor a more bilateral and transactional approach to international relations, the development of ties between the US and key players on the global stage will be critical in the coming years. In this issue, our analysts provide their preliminary assessments for the future of U.S. relations with its key partners and rivals within the Indo-Pacific theater under the Trump 2.0 administration.
JAPAN
Since the end of World War II, Japan has been one of America’s key like-minded partners in the Asia-Pacific region. Recently, Japan reclaimed its position as the world’s third-largest economy, and despite its ongoing population decline, it remains the 12th most populous nation in the world. The US is also a crucial partner for Japan, especially in defense, as Washington includes Tokyo under its “nuclear umbrella.” Additionally, there are nearly 55,000 U.S. servicemembers stationed across the country. Japan has recently undergone a political earthquake, with the ruling LDP-led coalition losing its majority, leaving a new government still in formation. Despite significant changes on both sides of the Pacific, US-Japan relations are expected to remain stable. During his first term, Trump maintained strong ties with then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (assassinated in 2022). The current Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, congratulated Trump on his victory over a call, agreeing to meet personally as soon as possible and to raise the Japan-US alliance to a higher level. After the call, Ishiba noted to reporters that Trump was friendly and that he could speak with him frankly without using “fancy words.”
SOUTH KOREA
The US-Korea alliance had already shown signs of strain during the first Trump administration. Crucially, the issue of defense cost-sharing may once again be pushed to the forefront, as it will put significant economic and diplomatic pressure on South Korea. Trump’s policy vis-à-vis Pyongyang, while incorporating essential elements of “reconciliation,” has not comprehensively addressed the issue of North Korea’s nuclear build-up. If the Trump 2.0 administration chooses to pursue further engagement with Pyongyang, issues of coordination between Washington and Seoul might emerge, challenging South Korea’s leading role in these developments. Moreover, Trump’s “America First” trade policy will likely become more aggressive and protectionist, which may present new tariffs and trade barriers for Korea’s export industries, particularly semiconductors and automobiles. Additionally, Trump’s hardline stance on China makes relations between South Korea and China increasingly delicate. The intertwined geopolitical and economic connections mean that Seoul must carefully navigate a strategic balance between the U.S. and China, which demands close attention from the ROK leadership.
CHINA
In China, the US elections did not dominate the public discussion as they did when Donald Trump was first elected. From China’s perspective, the trade war with the U.S. will likely continue regardless of the election outcome. Although Trump has been more outspoken toward China, his charismatic and entertaining persona appeals to the traditionally conservative Chinese society, making him a more favorable figure than Harris. Trump’s “America First” approach, with promises of a 60% tariff on Chinese imports and threats to “go crazy” if China attempts to invade Taiwan, poses a serious concern for China’s leadership, which is currently focused on policies to stabilize the Chinese economy. On the other hand, Trump’s foreign policy is also likely to strain US relations with democratic allies and create significant global tensions, which could provide opportunities for China to strengthen its influence. Previous interactions don’t have to suggest that Trump admires China’s leader’s “iron-fist” approach. When describing Trump’s foreign policy, observers often agree on one key adjective: “unpredictable.” Therefore, the greatest challenge for China lies in navigating the uncertainty of Trump’s character and the difficulty of forecasting his policies.
TAIWAN
During Trump’s first presidency, Taiwan and the US signed several agreements to facilitate bilateral exchanges, marking a period of heightened engagement. These deals also reflected shared concerns over China’s growing influence and aimed to bolster Taiwan’s international presence and self-defense capabilities. Much of the discussion surrounding the U.S. elections focused on whether, this time, the incoming administration would continue to uphold strong support for Taiwan. In a statement, ruling’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) spokesperson Han Ying (韓瑩) emphasized that Taiwan-US relations are “solid as a rock,” highlighting a strong bipartisan consensus in the U.S. supporting Taiwan — a stance, she noted, that will remain unchanged regardless of election outcomes. Eric Chu (朱立倫), chairperson of the main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), acknowledged Trump’s first term as a period of significant pro-Taiwan legislation and support for Taiwan’s self-defense. Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) also remarked that Taiwan, with its critical role in the global chip industry, could play a key role in helping U.S. President-elect Donald Trump fulfill his “Make America Great Again” vision. Taiwanese scholars have expressed mixed opinions on whether the incoming administration would commit U.S. military forces to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. They noted that Washington’s approach to Taiwan over the next four years will likely be “unpredictable.”
Why is it important?
US foreign posture, including its critical relations with partners in the Indo-Pacific, the global geopolitical hotspot, will continue to shape the global balance of power. Unlike many other electoral races in this “Elections Superyear,” US elections hold significance worldwide because American policies, leadership, and foreign relations have far-reaching impacts. In the context of the Indo-Pacific region, arguably, the most critical concept is the US’ role as a “benign hegemon,” a provider of public goods—such as security guarantees, open trade routes, and crisis intervention—that benefit both itself and other nations. The fear of “unpredictability” – a sentiment that reverberates across democratic countries in the Indo-Pacific– effectively questions the long-established dynamic in the region, which allowed it to rely on Washington for those above global public goods. The potential emergence of a leadership vacuum in the Indo-Pacific can have severe consequences for the security and stability of the region as China, the aspiring authoritarian hegemon, may seek to fill in this gap.
