What is going on?
October 10, 2024 marked the 113th National Day of the Republic of China – commemorating the start of the Wuchang Uprising which eventually led to the overthrow of the Qing dynasty and the establishment of the Republic of China. Also known as the Double Ten Day, the holiday is nowadays observed in Taiwan. Consequently, the celebrations, which include a speech by the President of Taiwan, are closely watched by observers of cross-strait relations as a barometer of tensions between Taipei and Beijing and a reflection of debates about Taiwanese identity.
This year’s speech by President William Lai (賴清德), his first since assuming office last May, also drew significant attention from domestic and international commentators who speculated whether it would heighten tensions between Taiwan and China. Yet, the address maintained a moderate tone. President Lai was willing to engage with Beijing on pressing global issues such as climate change, public health, and efforts toward “maintaining regional security to pursue peace and mutual prosperity for the wellbeing of people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.” Yet, Lai simultaneously reaffirmed Taiwan’s stance on its sovereignty and asserted that “The Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other,” while the People’s Republic of China “has no right to represent Taiwan.” This statement, alongside other remarks on cross-strait relations, elicited a predictably hostile response from Beijing.
What is the broader picture?
In response to the speech by President Lai, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning (毛寧) said that “upholding the one-China principle, opposing ‘Taiwan independence’ and opposing ‘two Chinas’ and ‘one China, one Taiwan’” is PRC’s “consistent position on the Taiwan region’s external exchanges and participation in international activities.” One of Mao’s statements also included a call for foreign politicians visiting Taiwan to correct their improper remarks and actions, refrain from “meddling in China’s internal affairs,” and stop “conniving at and supporting ‘Taiwan independence’ and heightening tensions in the Taiwan Strait.”
Ostensibly in response to the speech, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Eastern Theater Command announced the start of the Joint Sword-2024B war games, slated to include “joint sea-air combat readiness patrol, the blockade and control of key ports and areas, strikes on sea and land targets.” An editorial in the People’s Daily, the official “mouthpiece” of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, blamed Lai’s “dangerous ‘new two-state theory’” (新兩國論) on US encouragement, which means that the drills are intended to send a message not just to “the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces,” but importantly, to Washington. At the time of publication, the PLA has not announced a concrete time frame for the war games which follow the the Joint Sword-2024A drills launched after Lai’s inauguration speech in May.
Let’s remember the reason for the season: October 10 commemorates the start of the 1911 Wuchang Uprising, which ultimately led to the Xinhai Revolution, the collapse of the Qing dynasty (清朝), and the Republic of China’s (ROC) establishment on New Year’s Day in 1912. After the Nationalist forces of the Kuomintang (KMT) were defeated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and retreated to Taiwan in 1949, the celebrations of the National Day on October 10 continued across the Strait. At the time of the Wuchang Uprising, Taiwan was not under the jurisdiction of any Chinese government as it was ceded to Japan under the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki.
The National Day celebrations have often sparked controversy within the context of domestic political competition in Taiwan. In particular, they reflect the divergence between Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT) on the preferred trajectory of cross-strait relations and Taiwan’s identity. In the lead-up to the 2023 event, Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), former president and KMT leader, announced his boycott of the celebration organized by the Tsai administration. His objection stemmed from the use of the English title, ”Taiwan National Day 2023.” Similarly, before this year’s celebration, Ma announced that he would not attend the ceremony as he accused Lai of creating a “new two-state theory” that, in his view, sets Taiwan on a path toward independence. Ma argues that this stance significantly violates the ROC Constitution and jeopardizes the security of Taiwan’s 23 million people.
In the past, the Taiwan Statebuilding Party (TSP), known for its solid pro-independence stance and focus on promoting Taiwanese sovereignty, particularly among younger voters and activists, advocated for a new national holiday more relevant to Taiwan’s history. The party argued that the Double Ten National Day, historically linked to the Chinese mainland, was imposed by the KMT dictatorship during martial law, indoctrinating Taiwanese citizens into identifying with the Republic of China (ROC) – which some Taiwanese people regard as a foreign colonial regime.
Why does it matter?
This year’s National Day celebration and President Lai’s statement hold particular significance as they likely signal the trajectory of cross-strait relations in the coming years. China continues its crackdown on opponents of the annexation of Taiwan through several tools in its political warfare arsenal. This includes the deployment of lawfare: the recently introduced new legal guidelines extending its 2005 Anti-Secession Law and the China Coast Guard (CCG) Regulation No. 3. Observers are now closely monitoring whether these legal changes might serve as a pretext for increased military exercises or economic sanctions targeting Taiwan. The evolving situation underscores the uncertainty surrounding Taiwan’s future security and diplomatic stance with China.
It is also important to note that for over half a million of Taiwan’s Austronesian Indigenous Peoples, as with many Indigenous peoples globally, the Double Ten Day symbolizes a historical and ongoing infringement on their sovereignty. This day serves as a somber reminder of the atrocities perpetrated against them, including the theft of their ancestral territories, and highlights the discrimination and marginalization they continue to experience despite advancements in political rights and formal representation.
