The European Values Center for Security Policy in collaboration with the Friedrich Naumann Foundation organized a crisis simulation in Seoul examining the implications of a potential Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan. Bringing together experts from government, diplomacy, security institutions, business, and think tanks, the exercise explored how democratic actors might respond to a rapidly escalating crisis unfolding below the threshold of conventional warfare. The simulation examined not only military dynamics, but also the political, economic, and societal vulnerabilities exposed by disruptions to maritime trade, energy infrastructure, supply chains, and information environments.
The exercise demonstrated that a blockade scenario would confront democratic states with serious coordination dilemmas and difficult strategic tradeoffs. While some actors responded cohesively, others remained cautious or internally divided, highlighting broader challenges related to preparedness, economic interdependence, and crisis response. Based on these findings, the report offers policy recommendations aimed at strengthening democratic resilience, contingency planning, and coordinated decision making in the event of a Taiwan Strait crisis.
You can find the full report and detailed policy recommendations available for download on the FNF website.