Photo by: Marcin Jerzewski, European Values
What is happening?
As South Koreans await the Constitutional Court’s verdict on whether to uphold or overturn the National Assembly’s December 2024 decision to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol, the divided nation boldly takes to the streets to express its divergent sentiments. On March 1, which witnessed the 106th anniversary of pro-independence protests challenging the Japanese colonial rule, Seoul saw massive pro- and anti-impeachment rallies that mobilized over 130 thousand participants. While crowds on Independence Movement Day were some of the largest since parliamentarians voted to impeach the contentious president, ACLED – an independent international nonprofit organization collecting data on protests worldwide – has recorded over 750 anti-Yoon protests and around 200 pro-Yoon protests since he declared martial law in December 2024. This large-scale mobilization of the electorate of both conservative and progressive parties points to growing polarization of the South Korean society and an increasingly volatile political landscape.
What is the broader picture?
The Republic of Korea now stands at a critical juncture as it debates whether to impeach Yoon Suk Yeol, its conservative president. On December 3, 2024, Yoon sent shockwaves across the nation as he declared martial law to “immediately eradicate the unscrupulous pro-Pyongyang antistate forces” and safeguard his country’s “free constitutional order” from internal and external threats. While the National Assembly officially withdrew the short-lived declaration within six hours, South Korean politics have remained unstable as on December 14, the legislature passed the motion to impeach him 204-85. The submission alleged that Yoon “committed rebellion that hurt peace in the Republic of Korea by staging a series of riots.”
Now, the nation’s Constitutional Court has 180 days to render a judgment on whether to uphold or overturn the legislature’s decision to impeach Yoon, with the verdict expected by mid-March. A new presidential election would be held within 60 days if Yoon is removed.
On the one hand, high levels of political mobilization and participation in protests can be viewed as a sign of resilience of Korean democracy. The Republic of Korea is classified as a third-wave democracy–similar to many Central Eastern European countries, such as Czechia, and others in East Asia, including Taiwan and the Philippines. As many South Koreans still remember the military-authoritarian rule that asphyxiated its citizens until 1988, the mass protests against Yoon’s overreach are sending two clear messages: There is no going back to military dictatorship, and politicians need to remain accountable to their constituency. ACLED data also demonstrates high levels of mobilization across the territory of South Korea, demonstrating that the ongoing political crisis is not merely a concern for the capital elites but rather an issue of national importance.
On the other hand, the tensions over Yoon’s future as the president of South Korea take place in the context of growing political polarization. One reason for the growing divisions in society and the increasingly antagonistic stance between the two camps is the country’s two-party system, dominated by the conservative People Power Party (PPP) and the liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK). The dynamics within South Korea’s party system drive the shift away from programmatic policies towards personalistic politics. The antagonism between the two camps reached an apex following the April 2024 parliamentary elections, which allowed the DPK to retain a majority in the National Assembly. In particular, significant budgetary cuts proposed by the National Assembly exacerbated tensions between the executive and legislative branches – as Juan Linz argued, one of the key “perils of presidentialism.”
The political mobilization patterns ahead of the Supreme Court’s impeachment verdict also demonstrate how polarized South Korea has become. On March 1st, competing pro- and anti-Yoon demonstrators coalesced in key locations in Seoul. Near Gwanghwamun and Gyeongbokgung Palace, police buses formed a barricade to separate protestors supporting and opposing impeachment. While the protests remained peaceful, observers marked considerable verbal hostility between both camps. However, opinion polls demonstrate that the Korean citizenry remains largely anti-Yoon, with 60% of respondents saying he should be removed from office and 35% opposing removal, according to Gallup Korea survey results released on March 7.
Why does it matter?
The shift from programmatic to personalistic policies, political polarization, and the failure of cohabitation – these challenges are hardly unique to South Korea amid the global threat of democratic backsliding. Consequently, understanding the dynamics of contentious politics south of the 53rd parallel is important because it can point to mechanisms of democratic resilience applicable to other polities whose democratic institutions and processes are in peril. The case of South Korea, with pronounced tensions between the rigidly divided PPP and DPK camps, also points to the importance of reforms promoting more representative majoritarian systems over first-past-the-post, winner-takes-it-all forms of electoral contest.
Political polarization in South Korea also has important implications for Seoul’s international posture. Partisan conflicts over external action undermine the sustainability of key strategic decisions. This is particularly evident in policies toward Tokyo and Pyongyang, where opinions split along party lines. PPP supporters favor Yoon’s approach to Japan and North Korea, while the DPK supporters largely oppose a conciliatory stance towards Tokyo and call for more dialogue with Pyongyang. The internal discord over Seoul’s foreign policy orientation is especially perilous as Donald J. Trump has returned to the White House, ringing in an era of pronounced instability in the Indo-Pacific region.
