A potential East Asian contingency, in the form of a conflict or a crisis involving Taiwan, could present a complex set of scenarios that would significantly impact international relations, particularly between the European Union, the United States, and East Asian democracies. Meanwhile, Russia, China, North Korea and Iran have formed a clearly hostile geopolitical axis. Despite the critical nature of these potential scenarios, there is currently a lack of comprehensive understanding and preparedness among EU and NATO officials and experts, both at the institutional and at the member state levels.
The following report is based on a closed-door tabletop exercise conducted by the European Values Center for Security Policy (EVC) and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNF). It details the respective actions taken by active players and the subsequent feedback provided by the players themselves and by observers. It also aims to identify potential gaps in planning and decision-making that could arise during such a crisis.
While this report compiles the opinions of governmental and non-governmental experts, the sole responsibility over the final formulations lies with the authors — the analysts of the European Values Center for Security Policy. This report cannot and should not be interpreted as representing positions of any of the individuals or institutions involved in this simulation. For sensitivity reasons, the identities of the participants will not be publicly disclosed. None of its contents reflect the formal positions of any state or institution in real life. This fictional simulation aims to inform real-life policy planning by showing how such a two-theater escalation scenario might play out, as well as how individual states and institutions might react.
