Photo by Olimpia Kot, European Values
What is happening?
Since early 2025, Taiwan has faced political instability driven by mass recall efforts between the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). Civic groups aligned to the DPP filed petitions against 37 legislators from the KMT and its allies in the 113-seat Legislative Yuan, where the opposition holds a majority. Sparked by budget cuts pushed through by the KMT–Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) alliance, the recalls target lawmakers elected in the 2024 election. In response, the KMT launched counter-recalls against 15 DPP lawmakers.
What is the broader picture?
In mid-April, Taipei’s KMT Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) proposed a no-confidence vote against the Cabinet, challenging President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) to dissolve the legislature under the Article 2 of the Additional Articles of the Constitution. He argued that the Legislative Yuan should dismiss the Cabinet rather than allow the ruling party to continue harming Taiwan. Chiang’s remarks followed a controversy in which four KMT local offices and staff were investigated for allegedly submitting fake signatures in recall petitions against DPP lawmakers.
Prosecutors have been investigating the KMT’s recall campaigns for alleged document forgery since March and have searched 16 KMT regional offices, questioning at least 195 individuals across Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung, Yilan, Taichung, Chiayi County, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung. At least 83 of those questioned were identified as KMT staff. So far, 20 individuals have been detained due to concerns over collusion and other alleged serious offenses.
As of May 28, recall petitions against 31 KMT-aligned lawmakers have passed the 10 percent signature threshold required for the second-stage review and were submitted to local election commissions. Meanwhile, two more recall attempts targeting DPP lawmakers were recently rejected, bringing the total number of failed KMT-led petitions to eight. In one of the two cases, despite meeting the signature requirement, the Central Election Commission (CEC) rejected the petition due to the initiator’s withdrawal. The other fell short of the required signatures. Additionally, petitions against seven other DPP legislators are due by Tuesday, June 24.
Why does it matter?
The CEC announced on Friday, June 20, that recall votes for the 24 KMT lawmakers will be held on Saturday, July 26, in accordance with Article 87 of Public Officials Election and Recall Act, which requires a recall vote to take place within 20 to 60 days after official confirmation. A recall vote will pass if votes in favor of removing a lawmaker exceed those against and represent at least 25% of eligible voters in the election district. If the recall vote fails, no further recall votes can be made during the lawmakers’ current term, which ends in January 2028.
If the DPP wins at least six seats in the recall elections, it could regain a majority in the 113-seat Legislative Yuan. This would allow the party to easier advance its economic and policy agenda, including responses to political instability and U.S. tariff pressures. However, an April poll by Global Views Monthly found public opinion on the recall campaigns remains divided, with 45.9% opposed and 40% in support.
