What is happening?
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) conducted a 2-day drill in Taiwan’s territorial waters from April 1 to 2, 2025, codenamed Strait Thunder-2025A. Coming amid recent tensions in Cross-strait relations and Chinese military drills that are happening in international waters around Australia and New Zealand, the exercise encircled the entire territory administered by Taiwan and was conducted closer to the country’s landmass than ever before. Taiwan’s Presidential Office has said that the drills undermine peace and stability, not just across the Taiwan Strait but also in the Asia-Pacific as a whole, while Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense has said that it is committed to “not elevating conflicts and not causing disputes, but [being] ready and confident to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty and public security.”
What is the broader picture?
Between April 1 and 2, 2025, the PRC conducted a 2-day drill encircling Taiwan, involving all sectors of the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command. The drills involved the highlighted targeting of Taiwanese population and industrial centers, as well as closer positioning of military assets to Taiwan’s landmass, an effort seen as “getting closer than ever to an actual blockade.”
The exercise came amid recent increased cross-strait tensions, in which some Chinese influencers residing in Taiwan were arrested and deported after calling for Chinese military invasion of the country. In addition, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) called China a “foreign hostile force” after originally calling for “dialogues on equal grounds,” a stance shared with his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文). Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense has said that it maintains a policy of non-escalation while maintaining readiness at defending Taiwan.
After decades of relative calm, following the Third Taiwan Straight Crisis of 1995 to 1996, Chinese military drills around Taiwan began intensifying following a visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, then speaker for the US House of Representatives, in August 2022. Over the years, Beijing has depicted these drills as a “purely domestic affair” and a “stern warning against separatism efforts of Taiwanese authorities,” despite the fact that the PRC has never governed Taiwan. Moreover, Chinese authorities have also justified these drills to assert their stance that “Taiwanese reunification is inevitable and will be realized by force, if necessary,” as well as opposition to relations between Taiwan and the rest of the world, viewing such contacts as a “violation of the One-China Principle that states Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.”
Naval engagements between China and Taiwan have also been an increasingly common occurrence, and recently the Chinese navy has been seen conducting patrols off the coast of Australia, signifying an increasingly aggressive posture that has concerned much of the international community.
While most third-party governments either maintain only unofficial relations with Taiwan by way of trade and cultural offices or have no relations with Taiwan whatsoever, much of the international community has seen these military drills as a disturbing escalation by the PRC that goes against efforts to maintain the status quo with no unilateral changes by either side.
Amidst the increased risk of war these actions have raised, Taiwan reinstated a one year mandatory military service policy in 2022, pledged to reactivate military courts to address instances of Taiwanese military officers trading classified information with the Chinese authorities, and recently conducted a “whole of society resilience” civil drill simulating various disaster scenarios involving local officials and civilians in Tainan. The civil drill is expected to be expanded to other Taiwanese cities in the future.
Why does it matter?
China-Taiwan relations appear increasingly unstable, with China increasingly assertive in its claims to Taiwan. With Taiwan’s pivotal role in the semiconductor industry and the trade flows along the strait that are vital to global supply chains, war there would have enormous consequences worldwide, including in the European Union, with a refugee crisis and humanitarian disaster to be expected.
Due to these factors, some analysts believe this conflict will be the “final trigger point for World War III.” With this in mind, they have emphasized efforts between the two sides to “not change the status quo unilaterally and maintain peace.” Taiwan’s democracy and freedom is also increasingly being highlighted as a valuable asset by countries around the world, to be protected particularly at a time when authoritarian actors are attempting to downplay such values.
