Photo: Chancellery of Prime Minister, Republic of Poland
What is happening?
Amid geopolitical uncertainty underpinned by the ongoing full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, China’s growing belligerence across its neighborhood including the South China Sea, and the Trump 2.0 administration, Vietnamese prime minister Phạm Minh Chính traveled to Central Europe to meet with the heads of Polish and Czech governments. Even though Hanoi’s relations with Warsaw and Prague have remained relatively strong, Phạm’s early 2025 junket marked the first high-level delegation exchange in 18 years with Poland and six years with the Czech Republic, coinciding with the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Vietnam and its European partners. Deepening economic cooperation and people-to-people exchanges were top of the agenda in both capitals, highlighting the potential for bolstering bilateral ties through pragmatic cooperation.
What is the broader picture?
Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính visited Poland January 16-18, marking the first visit of a Vietnamese Prime Minister to Poland in 18 years and coinciding with the 75th anniversary of bilateral diplomatic relations. The visit focused on three main pillars: geopolitics, including an exchange of views between both sides pertaining to the ongoing Russian invasion in Ukraine, economic exchanges, including the EU-Vietnam Investment Protection Agreement, and people-to-people ties, recognizing that Poland is home to a 30-thousand strong Vietnamese diaspora.
Following his visit to Poland, PM Phạm traveled to Prague for a three-day visit to Czechia from January 18-20. Similarly to Phạm’s stay in Poland, the visit focused on advancing people-to-people and business ties, including in areas such as green transformation, digital transformation, renewable energy, and mining.
Central Europe might thus become a new target for Hanoi’s bamboo diplomacy (ngoại giao cây tre). Nguyễn Phú Trọng, who served as general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam from 2011 until his death in 2024, first used this term in his 2016 speech referencing the CPV’s founder, Hồ Chí Minh, who described the Vietnamese people as having bamboo-like qualities: “flexible yet resilient, compassionate yet strong-willed, adaptable yet principled, understanding the times and circumstances, knowing oneself and others.” This foreign policy strategy of ultimate balancing between Beijing, Washington, and Moscow guides Vietnam towards amenability in managing its relations with great powers amid their rising competition as the nation seeks to, above anything else, prioritize its national interests.
In light of this approach, defense industry cooperation is a crucial area in which we can expect more cooperation between Central Europe and Vietnam. Hanoi has historically relied on Russian technologies in its defense build-up. Yet, while it continues to refrain from condemning Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the Southeast Asian country is now actively seeking to derisk its relations with Russia. Specifically in the defense realm, it has adopted a three-pronged strategy: to retrofit, to indigenize, and to diversify. It is worth highlighting that the Polish and Vietnamese defense ministries held bilateral talks on defense industry cooperation in Q3 2024 in Warsaw.
Why does it matter?
During PM Phạm’s visit, Poland’s Donald Tusk announced he would accept his Vietnamese counterpart’s invitation to visit Vietnam, planning to travel to the country in 2025. Consequently, it remains imperative to watch whether Warsaw will formally elevate its ties with Hanoi to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership. Vietnam currently has eight such partnerships, including two with European countries: France and Russia. While Poland has not announced its own Indo-Pacific Strategy, exchanges with the region have intensified, including Warsaw’s and Delhi’s decision to establish a strategic partnership. Recognizing the strength of the existing economic and people-to-people ties between Warsaw and Hanoi, Vietnam might be a natural next major partner for Poland in the region.
Hanoi is also showing signs of an effort to safeguard positive relations between Vietnam and Czechia even after the European nation’s 2025 parliamentary elections. Notably, Phạm’s interlocutors in Prague will include not only the representatives of the current government but also former PM and current opposition legislator Andrej Babiš. Babiš’s ANO party is currently leading the polls ahead of this year’s parliamentary elections in Czechia.