What is happening?
After months of protracted and dramatic business negotiations, Canberra has officially confirmed its selection of Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) as the main supplier of 11 modern, multipurpose frigates for its newly developed fleet of warships, as part of the government’s SEA 3000 Frigate Program modernization effort. The program is set to replace seven outdated and retiring Anzac-class vessels over the coming years and will serve as a key driving force behind the Royal Australian Navy. New enhanced Mogami-class frigates will also be added, alongside six new larger, highly modern Hunter-class anti-submarine frigates, as Canberra doubles its surface combat fleet over the next decade.
What is the broader picture?
While Canberra refrains from mentioning any country explicitly in various official documents, the move comes in direct response to the growing aggression and expansionism of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) across the Indo-Pacific maritime domain. In 2023, Australia commissioned an in-depth review of its naval planning, surface fleet capabilities, and the combat effectiveness of its warships. Publishing the new government analysis titled “Enhanced Lethality Surface Combatant Fleet” soon followed, laying a new foundation for acquisitions and defense planning — meant to complement Australia’s future fleet of nuclear submarines under the second pillar of the AUKUS trilateral security pact.
Initially, companies from Germany, South Korea, Japan, and Spain expressed interest in supplying the eleven new frigates. The shortlist ultimately included Germany’s defense-tech giant ThyssenKrupp and the aforementioned MHI. The German bidder leaned heavily on its reputation as a seasoned exporter with extensive shipbuilding experience and emphasized Japan’s limited prior involvement in military exports. MHI, on the other hand, framed its offer within the broader context of deepening military-security and economic relations between the two Pacific partners. As has become the norm in recent years — due to worsening global security environment — the decisive factors were delivery timelines and the balance between combat capabilities and cost-efficiency for the price tag on the Australian defense budget.
As a result, MHI will build the first three frigates, with the lead ship expected to be delivered as early as 2029. At the same time, Canberra is making a determined effort to expand its own defense-industrial base and shipbuilding capacity. Last Tuesday, it was announced that Australian firm Austal had won a large tender to design and construct approximately eighteen new landing craft and eight larger army vessels. The deal includes a key share in constructing the remaining eight of the eleven Japanese-designed frigates at local shipyards in Henderson, Western Australia. This gives the Australia–Japan partnership an entirely new political-security dimension and also marks a moment of symbolic relevance after Japan’s failed bid last decade to build Australia’s next-generation diesel-powered submarines. That contract initially went to France but was famously cancelled in favor of developing a more advanced nuclear submarine fleet under the AUKUS pact.
This goes far beyond a mere business transaction between the two nations. New developments clearly signal a significant deepening of already close political-security relations between the two nations and open the door to further expanded military cooperation. Not only will Australia gain valuable know-how from its Japanese counterparts in building modern warships, but in the future, Australian vessels may also be repaired, armed, or maintained in Japanese ports — and vice versa. Japan, meanwhile, is seeking to establish itself as a major defense exporter on the global stage, especially after recently relaxing its rules on exporting advanced weapons systems. This deal marks Japan’s second major international arms export contract, following the 2024 delivery of a radar and air defense system to the Philippines.
Why does it matter?
The newly confirmed agreement between Canberra and Tokyo, currently valued at US$6.5 billion, alongside Australia’s plans to acquire at least seven nuclear submarines of the SSN-AUKUS and Virginia classes, primarily aims at deterring the PRC and other authoritarian actors from engaging in military aggression against Australia — or against any democratic ally in the Indo-Pacific. With the Royal Australian Navy’s growing list of acquisitions, the Australian Defence Force will possess its largest warship fleet since WWII, reestablishing the continental state as a relevant maritime power that can no longer be ignored in any future conflict in the Pacific ocean. This is thanks to both the scale of the future naval force and the advanced combat capabilities it will bring to the table.