- POSITIVE OUTCOME: CZECH REPUBLIC ACHIEVES DIPLOMATIC PARITY WITH RUSSIA
Czech diplomatic relations with Russia have long been asymmetrical, contrasting the size of diplomatic missions: approximately 140 Russian diplomats to 60 Czech diplomats. The proportion will now be around 40 to 40 (including consulates), which is a very good result. - POSITIVE OUTCOME: CZECH REPUBLIC CRIPPLED DIPLOMATICALLY BACKED INTELLIGENCE REZIDENTURAS OF SVR AND GRU
A total of 80 Russian citizen with diplomatic immunity (first wave: 18, second wave: 62) will leave the Czech Republic in till end of May 2021. Many of them have been identified as GRU and SVR agents. This is a high number and the most extensive decrease of Russian state influence on the Czech territory since the departure of Soviet troops thirty years ago. - POSITIVE OUTCOME: ALLIES HAVE BACKED CZECHIA, SLOVAKIA IMMEDIATELY EXPELLED THREE RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS
The EU and NATO have backed the Czech response, confirming evidence presented by the Czech Republic proving that Russia was responsible for the military attack on the Czech territory. Slovakia has expelled three Russian intelligence officers as a gesture of solidarity. - POSITIVE OUTCOME: A LONG-TERM REDUCTION OF THE RUSSIAN PRESENCE IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC
Czech Foreign Ministry has activated Article 11 of the Vienna Convention, which means setting an upper limit on the number of Russian diplomatic staff, de facto reducing the number of official positions. This is different from expelling a specific person who will soon be replaced. That is a positive outcome, because it will be difficult for the Kremlin to renew the huge disparity that has been present for years. - NEGATIVE OUTCOME: RUSSIA HAS NOT YET BEEN SUBSTANTIVELY PUNISHED FOR ITS MILITARY ATTACK ON CZECH TERRITORY
Looking at the outcomes of this affair, Czech Republic so far only achieved parity in terms of the number of diplomatic staff. However, Russia is the aggressor, and its agents blew up Czech munition warehouse and murdered two Czech citizens. Considered from this perspective, Czech response is not yet satisfactory. Hopefully this will change in the coming weeks, because so far Russia has not actually been punished for this military attack on our territory. - NEGATIVE OUTCOME: FSB REMAINS, RUSSIA CAN CHOOSE WHICH INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS WILL STAY IN PRAGUE
The Czech Republic has given Russia five weeks to coordinate the departure of 62 diplomats in order to achieve parity. 20 Czech diplomats in Moscow were given just 24 hours to leave. As this is not a direct expulsion but only a cap on diplomatic employee numbers, the Kremlin has five weeks to choose which diplomats and intelligence officers it will keep. We know from the annual reports of Czech counterintelligence BIS that the Russian counterintelligence agency FSB is active from the Russian Embassy in Prague, and its agents have not yet been expelled. This is a very benevolent Czech gesture towards the aggressor, who has not shown us any good will. - NEGATIVE OUTCOME: THE GOVERNMENT HAS NOT EXCLUDED ROSATOM AND HAS NOT INITIATED THE TENDER WITHOUT IT
Many think that the government has excluded Rosatom from the tender for Dukovany. This is not true. On Monday 19 April 2021, the Czech government merely decided that Rosatom will not be invited to fill out the “security questionnaire”, which is completely non-binding and not part of the official tender. Instead of launching a tender with three strong democratic candidates and without Russia, the government has saved Russia’s skin. It did launch the tender and bought itself another half a year with an invented Potěmkin-style questionnaire, which means that another government under Zeman’s influence can hand over Dukovany to Moscow in the autumn 2021. The current Czech government has de facto shielded Russia’s continued participation which would be impossible to defend in the current political climate, but might be different in six months from now.
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EVALUATION: We have succeeded in breaking up part of the residencies of Russian correspondents on our territory. With regards to the situation as a whole, we haven’t been successful.
The only real punishment for Russia, for a military attack on our territory, is an equalization of the numbers of diplomats. This is not a fitting punishment for such a serious crime. Does our current answer have a deterrent effect? So much so, that next time Russia says to itself – we’d rather not make that attack again, we were severely punished for it last time? Definitely not yet. But it’s early. It’s not just about us. Russia has carried out a military attack on the territory of a NATO member state – and it is now watching, how big of a defense reaction it provokes. It was very weak, so far, which is bad news for NATO as a whole. Therefore, the coming weeks will be decisive.
LET’S WAIT: It took two to three weeks before the British response to the Russian chemical attack in Salisbury in 2018 triggered a strong reaction by allies (the expulsion of 153 Russian intelligence officers from a number of countries, and the closing of a Russian consulate in Seattle). Only a week has passed, so it is too early to draw conclusions. Another week or two will show whether we will finally punish Russia for its aggressiveness and make Kremlin think twice next time.
