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In general, the end of a dictator who stole elections by force is good news. Even more so if he was an ally of our enemies – Russia and China. Nicolás Maduro was one such an ally.
However, his regime was not created by Maduro alone – it was a system of corrupt gangs. Therefore, it is not certain that the entire dictatorial regime will fall after his abduction. We can probably expect a long tug-of-war over the future shape of the Venezuelan regime between Washington and a weakened Caracas.
The following aspects are essential for Czech interests in this context:
The Global Oil Card
If the United States gained control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, it would create the possibility of Washington significantly influencing global prices. If there were the political will to do so — and that is far from certain with the Trump administration — it could deal a severe blow to Moscow. We have no idea exactly what Trump has in kind. But we do know that the Kremlin and its oligarchs will be watching with concern.
China currently imports approximately 4% of its oil from Venezuela. This, too, is a significant lever for the U.S. strategy to exert future pressure on Beijing.
The situation in Cuba is even more sensitive, as it covers up to 40% of its energy needs from Venezuela. Potential U.S. control over Venezuelan oil would thus allow Washington to exert great pressure on Havana.
Regional Destabilization
Venezuela has a population of about 30 million. Another 8 million people have fled the country in the last decade. If U.S. intervention in Caracas were to cause widespread internal instability and a subsequent regional refugee crisis, Washington would have to shift part of its military and political capabilities to the Caribbean for the long term. This would mean fewer U.S. resources in Europe, which is clearly disadvantageous from the Czech perspective.
Power Over Rules
For smaller states such as Czechia, it is always bad news when superpowers ignore international law and act purely from a position of strength. Russia and China have become increasingly assertive in this regard. And yes, by violating Venezuela’s sovereignty, U.S. intervention there is also such a case.
Does this mean that Russia might be motivated to further violate international law? Realistically, no. Of course, Russian propaganda will use the U.S. intervention to its advantage. However, in practice, the Russian regime’s behavior is limited only by countervailing force and deterrence mechanisms, not by the rules of international law themselves. The Russian regime has long ignored these rules.
Will the American attack encourage Chinese aggression? Again, this is unlikely. China will attack Taiwan when it is certain that it can survive the economic consequences of such an operation. This is what the Chinese Communists fear most: that they will succeed militarily, but that the subsequent economic shock will undermine the stability of the regime or the legitimacy of the party. Beijing does not need any pretext for this, nor does it need international legitimacy derived from U.S. actions in the Caribbean. It is safe to assume that when China decides to strike in the region, they will use the U.S. actions there as an excuse.
What lessons should Czechia learn from the US intervention in Venezuela?
Unfortunately, we live in a world where military and economic power — and above all, the willingness to use them — are decisive factors. As a smaller state, we must push for the enforcement of international law. At the same time, however, we must acknowledge the reality that this can only be enforced through geopolitical power.
It is therefore essential that Czechia spend 5% of its GDP on defense and the overall resilience of the state, prepare for the possibility of a major regional war, rid itself of strategic dependencies on China, strengthen ties with friendly powers in our region — militarily with Poland, economically with Germany — and take tough action against domestic actors cooperating with the adversaries.
Otherwise, we have no chance of defending our key interests: the sovereignty of the republic, the democratic system, the security of the region, or economic – and therefore social – stability.