What is happening?
The first week of December witnessed the twentieth Tokyo-Beijing Forum, which brought together around 100 experts and journalists from Japan and China to discuss issues related to the relationship between these two major regional and global actors. There was much to discuss at this year’s forum in Tokyo, particularly in light of an annual opinion poll conducted by the forum’s organizers, The Genron NPO, a Tokyo-based think tank, and the China International Communications Group, a Chinese Communist Party-operated entity. Released in December, this year’s survey revealed that over 87 % of Chinese respondents have negative views of Japan, with a corresponding figure of 89 percent for Japanese respondents. Some of the survey’s other findings were among the most concerning, in terms of bilateral relations and perceptions, in the 20-year history of the poll.
What is the broader picture?
Negative impressions of Japan in China increased by 24 points to 87.7 percent on 2023, the second-highest figure since 2013. Back then, tensions had arisen following the Japanese government’s 2012 acquisition of several of the Senkaku Islands from a private Japanese owner, which China and Taiwan also claim as the Diaoyu Islands. In response, China, which remains Japan’s largest trading partner, imposed a trade embargo on rare earth exports to Japan. This act of trade weaponization subsequently turned Japan into a leader in the field of “economic security.” In this year’s poll, 50.6 percent of Japanese respondents still cited differences over territories as one of the key factors hindering improvement of bilateral ties.
In China, a significant concern cited by 35.5 percent of respondents was the release of treated and diluted water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. When Japan began releasing the first portion of this water into the sea last summer, China called the decision “extremely selfish” and suspended imports of Japanese seafood. Japan and China later agreed that Beijing would resume imports based on additional monitoring of the plant’s nearby seawater under the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Samples were collected in October, and Chinese researchers are currently analyzing them.
Another noteworthy figure is the perception of the significance of the Sino-Japanese relationship, as 59.6 percent of respondents in China — the highest rate since the survey began — considered it “not important” or “rather unimportant,” compared to only 5 percent of respondents in Japan sharing such negative views. The Genron NPO attributes the problem in part to slow progress in exchanges and dialogue between Tokyo and Beijing. Additionally, heated, inward-looking social media discussions may be influencing Chinese public opinion.
Why does it matter?
Sino-Japanese relations have been fragile and prone to sudden changes since WWII or the contemporaneous Second Sino-Japanese War. In addition to historical grievances, other factors have further challenged bilateral ties. These include the aforementioned spats over the Senkaku Islands and the nuclear waste water release, as well as arrests of Japanese nationals in China under vague espionage laws, and racially motivated public attacks against Japanese residents of China. However, there are also more systematic trends exacerbating bilateral tensions. China has intensified its military activities around Japan, including intrusions into Japan’s territorial airspace and waters and joint drills with Russia near Japan. In response to the deteriorating regional security environment, Japan has increased its defense spending and, together with the United States, has been deepening cooperation with like-minded regional partners, particularly South Korea and the Philippines.
At this year’s Tokyo-Beijing Forum, Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi expressed hopes of meeting his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, as soon as possible to address bilateral issues. He emphasized that both countries bear significant responsibilities on regional and global stages, noting that many nations expect them to foster a constructive and stable relationship. Wang Yi sent a video message in which he stated that China and Japan should work together to safeguard Asian solidarity and cooperation, aiming to prevent external forces from creating confrontation. This was a clear reference to the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. However, given the critical importance of the U.S. in safeguarding Japan’s security, the triangular dynamic between Tokyo, Washington, and Beijing could yet become yet another obstacle to improving the already fragile Sino-Japanese relationship.