Photo: Wikimedia Commons (collage by the author)
What is happening?
“I have talked to someone. I told him that if I am killed, he should kill BBM, Liza Araneta, and Martin Romualdez.”
These words, which might sound like threats from a gangster movie, were uttered in 2024 by the Vice President of the Philippines Sara Duterte. They came in reference to current Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., known by his nickname Bongbong, his wife (the first lady), and cousin (a member of the House of Representatives) respectively.
For those not versed in the intrigues of politics in the Philippines, it may have been gasp-inducing to hear a sitting vice president publicly imply that she had hired someone to potentially assassinate the president and his family, but the feud between the two most powerful political clans in the country has rumbled on through the highest levels of the Philippine political establishment over the last few years.
Duterte’s statement, along with corruption charges against her, served as grounds for opening a second impeachment process, just a year after dismissal of the first. In April, the Philippine House of Representatives committee found probable cause for impeachment, with a vote to proceed passing by a two-third majority the following month. The impeachment trial began on July 6, and the timetable for a verdict is, at time of writing, not yet clear, with indications that the trial could drag on into 2027. If convicted, Duterte will not be able to run for the presidency in 2028, though she already announced her candidacy in February. In the Philippines, a president can serve only a single six-year term, meaning she would not have to face the current president in the race. The vice president has referred to the impeachment trial as a “bloodbath” for which she is ready.
A major development came September 4, when a regional court issued an arrest warrant for Duterte. The warrant is based on her death threats but is separate from the impeachment trial. Bail was set at 360,000 Philippine pesos (around $5,700). The vice president posted bail, saying that she does not feel safe around law enforcement. A Philippine Department of Justice spokesperson commented that presidential immunity does not apply to the vice president. This makes Duterte the highest-ranking Philippine official ever to face criminal prosecution and arrest. She could face up to eight years in prison.
What is the broader picture?
As the children of two controversial former presidents, Marcos and Duterte have considerable political pedigree. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is the son of Ferdinand Marcos, considered by many a brutal dictator, who was in office from 1965 to 1986, whereas Sara Duterte is a daughter of Rodrigo Duterte, himself considered a ruthless authoritarian, who served from 2016 to 2022.
Considering how heated the fighting between the two highest Philippine officials has become, it is all the more interesting to consider that they were close political allies during their respective 2022 campaigns. Although in the Philippines the vice president and president are voted for on separate ballots (and can be of different political affiliations), the two campaigned together. Sara Duterte’s support was a major factor in Ferdinand Jr.’s victory, but their relationship deteriorated as the two started pursuing different political agendas after taking office.
A major rupture came with the arrest of Duterte, Snr. after Philippine authorities acted on an International Criminal Court warrant and extradited him to The Hague. The former president‘s police-enforced anti-drug crackdown, first as city mayor and later as president, left thousands of mostly petty drug suspects dead through extrajudicial killings. The ICC has been investigating the killings as a possible deliberately orchestrated crime against humanity.
The elder Duterte’s tenure was also marked by major rapprochement with China. Shortly after taking office, Duterte, Sr. announced the Philippines’ “separation” from the United States, leading to deteriorating relations between the two countries and a major expansion of Chinese influence on Manila. Sara Duterte’s term as vice president has also been marked by a warm stance towards China, including her refusal to condemn regular provocations by Chinese vessels in Philippine territorial waters.
Under the rule of Marcos Sr., the excesses and extravagances of the president and his wife Imelda were notorious. After declaring martial law before his second term was due to expire, Marcos Sr. then effectively achieved state capture, instigating one of the darkest periods in Philippine history. Thousands were arbitrarily jailed, tortured and killed and the prominent opposition leader Benigno Aquino Jr. was assassinated, helping to spark an uprising known as the People Power Revolution. This culminated in Marcos Sr.’s ouster and exile with his family to the U.S in 1986, orchestrated by the administration of then-U.S. President Ronald Reagan.
Lavish spending by the first lady Imelda Marcos on art, jewelry, fashion and real estate was a major factor in the revolution. Thousands of pairs of designer shoes found in the Marcos residence became part of Philippine political folklore. Estimates claimed that the Marcos family funneled billions of dollars out of the Philippines. Part of the money was pumped into Manhattan real estate, which is how the family first became acquainted with current U.S. President Donald Trump, at the time a major New York real estate mogul. During their first official call, Trump even asked Ferdinand Marcos Jr., how his mother, now 97, was. Based on the ties between the U.S. and the Philippines during Marcos’s Cold War tenure, Marcos Jr. clearly intends to maintain the close relations.
Why does it matter?
The Philippines is still a hot zone for Chinese maritime provocations, so establishing influence there is very important to Beijing. The Philippines comprises over 7,000 islands, spread between the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea, along with valuable natural resources.
If the impeachment of Duterte succeeds, or if she will be imprisoned before finishing her term, Marcos Jr. will have the power to nominate a replacement for vice president. Although this move would not enhance the president’s executive power, as the main role of the vice president is to be first in line of succession, it would remove an influential and vocal China advocate from a country that remains very strategically important to Beijing.