East Asia and Europe Dual Contingency Simulation

This report is based on a closed-door crisis simulation of a so-called dual-escalation scenario organized by the European Values Center for Security Policy (EVC) in cooperation with the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) in Paris in September 2025. The exercise focused on various security and political-economic dimensions of a potential simultaneous conflict emerging in East Asia and on NATO’s eastern flank. The report examines the escalation and response dynamics among the participating actors, with its core section dedicated to the key findings, lessons learned & lessons identified that emerged from the simulation. The final section outlines unresolved questions, research priorities, and areas of interest that warrant further examination. None of the contents of this report reflect the official positions of any state or specific institution. Similarly as the simulation, the report focuses on the Euro-Atlantic dimension of a potential escalation and summarizes only the most significant actions taken by selected players. It does not provide a comprehensive overview of all actors and all of their actions.