Photo: Pixabay
What is happening?
This month brought an unexpected rift between Japan and China over Taiwan. On November 7, Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated during a session of the Lower House Budget Committee that any Taiwan contingency involving the use of military force could threaten Japan’s survival. Under the 2015 legislation on collective self-defense, this could become a basis for Japan’s involvement in the defense of Taiwan. Since the People’s Republic of China considers Taiwan part of its territory, despite never having controlled it, Beijing reacted fiercely to Takaichi’s address, including offensive statements from its wolf warrior diplomats. Tokyo has been trying to manage the situation, but the fire that has been ignited will be very challenging to put out.
What is the broader picture?
China has reacted on several fronts. It has sent its coast guard into the disputed waters of the Senkaku Islands, which are controlled by Japan, and flown military drones past outlying Japanese territory. It has also advised its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan and urged caution for those considering studying there. In addition, it suspended imports of Japanese marine products, and the release of selected popular Japanese films has been postponed. The Chinese side also abruptly postponed the publication of the results of the annual Japan–China opinion poll conducted in both countries.
On the diplomatic front, the Chinese Foreign Ministry summoned the Japanese ambassador Kenji Kanasugi to demand a retraction of Takaichi’s remark, which Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong (孫衛東) described as extremely malicious, undermining the political foundation of China–Japan relations and deeply hurting the sentiments of 1.4 billion Chinese people who will never tolerate it. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning (毛寧) declared that, 80 years after the end of World War II, ‘militarism must never be revived in Japan.’ The biggest outcry in Japan was caused by Xue Jian (薛劍), the Chinese Consul-General in Osaka, who has been described as one of China’s so-called ‘wolf warrior’ diplomats, known for their aggressive rhetoric. He wrote on his social media in response to Takaichi: ‘Your dirty, intruding neck must be cut off without a moment’s hesitation. Are you ready for that?’
Japan’s Vice Foreign Minister Takehiro Funakoshi summoned China’s Ambassador to Japan, Wu Jianghao (吳江浩), to lodge a strong protest, calling the social media post ‘extremely inappropriate.’ Japanese politicians across the political spectrum have called for measures against the Consul-General, including deportation. Takaichi later clarified that her remark was made under the assumption of a worst-case scenario and does not change the government’s existing position. Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi added that the remark did not violate international law and that there is no need to retract it.
China is Japan’s largest trading partner, and Japanese businesses connected to the areas mentioned above, such as tourism, education, and fisheries, quickly began feeling the tensions. To support Japan, Taiwan has lifted all remaining import restrictions on Japanese food products that were imposed after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated that China’s announcements regarding travel and study in Japan undermine the people-to-people exchanges that leaders of both countries have agreed to promote. He also emphasized that Japan remains open to dialogue with China. Meanwhile, Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology warned Japanese nationals based in China to take safety precautions, such as avoiding going out alone and being mindful of what they say and how they behave when interacting with locals.
Why does it matter?
Japan and China normalized their post–WWII relations by signing the Japan–China Joint Communiqué in 1972, which states that Japan “fully understands and respects” China’s position that Taiwan is an “inalienable part” of its territory. Following the communiqué, Japan severed official diplomatic relations with the Republic of China on Taiwan, but the wording allowed Tokyo to maintain unofficial ties flexibly. Beijing is now citing the 1972 agreement as proof that Tokyo recognizes Taiwan as an internal matter of China.
Additionally, Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution renounces the use of force as a means of settling international disputes and commits Japan to not maintaining a military, which is why it only has the so-called Japan Self-Defense Forces (SDF) to protect its own territory. However, the 2015 legislation permits the SDF to use force for so-called collective self-defense in cases such as an armed attack against a foreign country that has a close relationship with Japan, when the attack threatens Japan’s survival, and when no other appropriate means are available. This is why Tokyo argues that Takaichi’s remark did not deviate from Japan’s position regarding Taiwan.
The Taiwan contingency is one of the biggest threats to peace in the Indo-Pacific, although its consequences would also have a significant impact on the rest of the world. Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, which is also why former Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said that “Ukraine may be the East Asia of tomorrow.” The potential involvement of regional players in the Taiwan contingency is a sensitive issue that most officials are trying to avoid. Consequently, it seems unlikely that Japan–China tensions will ease anytime soon, especially since relations were tense even before Takaichi’s remark.