{"id":44007,"date":"2026-07-28T13:48:39","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T11:48:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/?p=44007"},"modified":"2026-07-28T14:00:51","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T12:00:51","slug":"not-so-happy-anniversary-indo-pacific-waters-10-years-after-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/not-so-happy-anniversary-indo-pacific-waters-10-years-after-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling\/","title":{"rendered":"Not So Happy Anniversary \u2013 Indo-Pacific Waters 10 Years after the South China Sea Arbitration Ruling"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"44007\" class=\"elementor elementor-44007\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7900c916 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7900c916\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-68448bcb\" data-id=\"68448bcb\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fdbb509 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1fdbb509\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-no-translation=\"\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Photo: Unsplash.com<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7f858dde elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7f858dde\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-no-translation=\"\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<style>.elementor-element-7f858dde{display:none !important}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4790b7e6 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4790b7e6\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-4706313f\" data-id=\"4706313f\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-40331ecf elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"40331ecf\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-no-translation=\"\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-e9b2622\" data-id=\"e9b2622\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3e7d4cb9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3e7d4cb9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2>What is happening?<\/h2><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While summer is generally the season where things slow down, <strong>China<\/strong> has picked up the pace in the Indo-Pacific waters, keeping others busy as well. In June, it intensified <a href=\"https:\/\/www.japantimes.co.jp\/news\/2026\/06\/01\/japan\/china-patrol-taiwan-japan-philippines\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>patrols<\/strong><\/a> <strong>east of Taiwan<\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/new-front-opened-clash-over-waters-east-of-taiwan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dispatched<\/a> a <strong>maritime <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www3.nhk.or.jp\/nhkworld\/en\/news\/20260619_02\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>survey vessel<\/strong><\/a> to the area, and sent two <strong>Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) ships<\/strong> into the <strong>Japanese exclusive economic zone (EEZ)<\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www3.nhk.or.jp\/nhkworld\/en\/news\/20260609_03\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">claiming jurisdiction<\/a>. Following up in July, China <a href=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/ocean-of-peace-fijis-strategic-autonomy-and-chinas-pacific-miscalculation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>launched<\/strong><\/a><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><strong>a nuclear-capable ballistic missile<\/strong> into the <strong>South Pacific<\/strong>, while its navy <a href=\"https:\/\/www3.nhk.or.jp\/nhkworld\/en\/news\/20260721_17\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">conducted<\/a> a <strong>joint exercise<\/strong> and maritime patrol with its <strong>Russian counterpart<\/strong>. This included a Chinese <strong>live-fire exercise<\/strong> within Japan&#8217;s EEZ. Additionally, this month <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/chinese-coast-guard-struck-navy-sailor-south-china-sea-encounter-says-philippine-2026-07-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">witnessed<\/a> yet another <strong>encounter <\/strong>between China and <strong>the Philippines<\/strong> in the South China Sea.<\/p><h2>What is the broader picture?<\/h2><p>China\u2019s long-time growing assertiveness in the region has been driving other countries closer together and toward greater security and defense cooperation. These steps, however, have prompted China to escalate further. The ballistic missile test came shortly after <strong>Australia and Fiji <\/strong>signed two agreements that could <a href=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/ocean-of-peace-fijis-strategic-autonomy-and-chinas-pacific-miscalculation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reshape Pacific security<\/a><strong>. <\/strong>Many of China&#8217;s recent activities are <a href=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/new-front-opened-clash-over-waters-east-of-taiwan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">linked<\/a> to <strong>deepening cooperation between Japan and the Philippines<\/strong>, including negotiations on the <strong>delimitation of their EEZs<\/strong>, which overlap with waters claimed by Taiwan, and therefore by China as well, since Beijing views Taiwan as part of its territory.<\/p><p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www3.nhk.or.jp\/nhkworld\/en\/news\/20260721_03\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">most recent<\/a> <strong>joint exercise <\/strong>between China and Russia in Japan\u2019s EEZ included <strong>two Chinese navy missile destroyers <\/strong>and a <strong>supply ship<\/strong>, along with a <strong>Russian<\/strong> <strong>navy frigate<\/strong>. One of the Chinese missile destroyers conducted the <strong>live-fire exercise<\/strong> <strong>with machine guns <\/strong>on <strong>July 19<\/strong>, about <strong>180 kilometers<\/strong> southwest of <strong>Okinotorishima<\/strong>, Japan\u2019s southernmost island. <strong>The Japanese Ministry of Defense <\/strong>said this was <strong>the first time <\/strong>it had publicly announced a case of a foreign vessel conducting a live-fire exercise within Japan&#8217;s EEZ and expressed concern that such exercises could <strong>endanger vessels<\/strong> in nearby waters.<\/p><p>China <a href=\"https:\/\/www3.nhk.or.jp\/nhkworld\/en\/news\/20260721_17\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rejected<\/a> <strong>Japan&#8217;s concerns<\/strong>, noting that both the joint exercise and the live-fire drill had been <strong>announced in advance<\/strong>. <strong>The Chinese Foreign Ministry <\/strong>also argued that Okinotorishima is not an island but a rock and is therefore not entitled to an EEZ, adding that Beijing&#8217;s activities are<strong> consistent with international law<\/strong>. It also <strong>accused Tokyo<\/strong> of <strong>stoking fears<\/strong> of an external threat as a pretext to <strong>justify Japan\u2019s remilitarization<\/strong> and challenge the post-war international order.<\/p><p>In the case of <strong>the Philippines<\/strong>, the latest incidents with China <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/chinese-coast-guard-struck-navy-sailor-south-china-sea-encounter-says-philippine-2026-07-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">began<\/a> on <strong>July 20<\/strong> during an encounter between the <strong>CCG<\/strong> and the <strong>Philippine Navy<\/strong> in the contested waters of the <strong>Second Thomas Shoal <\/strong>in the <strong>South China Sea<\/strong>. During the skirmish, CCG personnel <strong>attacked Philippine Navy personnel<\/strong> with a wooden baton, though the CCG claims that the Philippine contingent instigated the incident. <strong>Three days later<\/strong>, the Philippines <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/china-says-it-drove-away-philippine-vessels-fresh-south-china-sea-incident-2026-07-23\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">accused<\/a> the CCG of <strong>firing a water cannon<\/strong> at a government fisheries vessel near the disputed <strong>Scarborough Shoal<\/strong>. China justified its actions by <strong>claiming sovereignty <\/strong>over the disputed area, describing the Filipino presence as &#8220;infringing and provocative actions.&#8221; Calling China&#8217;s actions in the South China Sea <strong>&#8220;disturbing,&#8221;<\/strong>U.S. Secretary of State <strong>Marco Rubio<\/strong> reaffirmed <strong>Washington&#8217;s defense commitments<\/strong> to the Philippines.<\/p><h2>Why does it matter?<\/h2><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Symbolically, all of this is happening exactly <strong>10 years <\/strong>after the <a href=\"https:\/\/pca-cpa.org\/en\/cases\/7\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">South China Sea Arbitration Ruling<\/a> of <strong>2016<\/strong>. <strong>The Philippines won the case<\/strong>, which determined that most of China&#8217;s claims, including its <strong>nine-dash line <\/strong>(which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/china-says-it-drove-away-philippine-vessels-fresh-south-china-sea-incident-2026-07-23\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">encompasses<\/a> almost the entire South China Sea, including the EEZs of <strong>Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam<\/strong>), and its activities in Philippine waters <strong>were unlawful<\/strong>. Predictably, <strong>China rejected the ruling<\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.uscc.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/Research\/Issue%20Brief_South%20China%20Sea%20Arbitration%20Ruling%20What%20Happened%20and%20What's%20Next071216.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">calling<\/a> it &#8220;null and void.&#8221;<\/p><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ten years later, Japan, the Philippines, the United States, and 11 other countries <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/south-china-sea-joint-statement-says-chinas-maritime-claims-have-no-basis-2026-07-12\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reiterated<\/a> that <strong>China&#8217;s expansive maritime claims have no legal basis<\/strong>. China responded by repeating its claims and <strong>blaming other countries <\/strong>for undermining regional stability, citing, among other things, <strong>U.S. military deployments <\/strong>and what it described as <strong>Japanese provocations<\/strong>, including issues <strong>related to Taiwan<\/strong>.<\/p><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Based on these developments, the vicious circle of action and reaction between China and regional actors is well established, setting the stage for another not-so-happy anniversary.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Photo: Unsplash.com Foto: Unsplash.com What is happening? While summer is generally the season where things slow down, China has picked up the pace in the Indo-Pacific waters, keeping others busy as well. In June, it intensified patrols east of Taiwan, dispatched a maritime survey vessel to the area, and sent two Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":43994,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[500],"tags":[506],"class_list":["post-44007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-david-toman"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Not So Happy Anniversary \u2013 Indo-Pacific Waters 10 Years after the South China Sea Arbitration Ruling - European Values Center for Security Policy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/not-so-happy-anniversary-indo-pacific-waters-10-years-after-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Not So Happy Anniversary \u2013 Indo-Pacific Waters 10 Years after the South China Sea Arbitration Ruling - European Values Center for Security Policy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Photo: Unsplash.com Foto: Unsplash.com What is happening? 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While summer is generally the season where things slow down, China has picked up the pace in the Indo-Pacific waters, keeping others busy as well. In June, it intensified patrols east of Taiwan, dispatched a maritime survey vessel to the area, and sent two Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/not-so-happy-anniversary-indo-pacific-waters-10-years-after-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling\/","og_site_name":"European Values Center for Security Policy","article_published_time":"2026-07-28T11:48:39+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-07-28T12:00:51+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/party_web.png","width":2160,"height":1136,"type":"image\/png"}],"author":"K\u00e1ja Kabe\u0161ov\u00e1","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"K\u00e1ja Kabe\u0161ov\u00e1","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/not-so-happy-anniversary-indo-pacific-waters-10-years-after-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/not-so-happy-anniversary-indo-pacific-waters-10-years-after-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling\/"},"author":{"name":"K\u00e1ja Kabe\u0161ov\u00e1","@id":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/1dad131c1c5d60a777b1a204a2c2605c"},"headline":"Not So Happy Anniversary \u2013 Indo-Pacific Waters 10 Years after the South China Sea Arbitration Ruling","datePublished":"2026-07-28T11:48:39+00:00","dateModified":"2026-07-28T12:00:51+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/not-so-happy-anniversary-indo-pacific-waters-10-years-after-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling\/"},"wordCount":1619,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/not-so-happy-anniversary-indo-pacific-waters-10-years-after-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/party_web.png","keywords":["David Toman"],"articleSection":["Articles"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/not-so-happy-anniversary-indo-pacific-waters-10-years-after-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling\/","url":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/not-so-happy-anniversary-indo-pacific-waters-10-years-after-the-south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling\/","name":"Not So Happy Anniversary \u2013 Indo-Pacific Waters 10 Years after the South China Sea Arbitration Ruling - 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