{"id":42778,"date":"2026-03-17T11:18:06","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T09:18:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/?p=42778"},"modified":"2026-05-20T15:42:00","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T13:42:00","slug":"what-would-a-war-in-the-czech-republic-look-like","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/what-would-a-war-in-the-czech-republic-look-like\/","title":{"rendered":"What would a war in the Czech Republic look like?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Link to\u00a0Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 Noviny article<\/a>.<\/h3>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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P\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed doba, kdy \u010desk\u00e9 firmy pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed m\u00edt promy\u0161leno, jak budou p\u0159ipraveny na velk\u00e9 krize nebo v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd konflikt kousek od na\u0161ich hranic. Bez dostate\u010dn\u00e9 vnit\u0159n\u00ed odolnosti se jim rychle m\u016f\u017ee rozsypat business model.\u00a0<\/i><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Rusko d\u00e1le proti Ukrajin\u011b vede brut\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lku, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 podle posledn\u00edch odhad\u016f kumulativn\u011b nad dva milion ob\u011bt\u00ed. Ukrajina je vy\u010derpan\u00e1 a stra\u0161n\u011b dlouho \u010del\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 p\u0159esile. Rusk\u00e9 po\u010detn\u00ed p\u0159evaze a v jej\u00edch z\u00e1dech \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 materi\u00e1ln\u00ed a technologick\u00e9 podpo\u0159e. Podle \u00fadaj\u016f americk\u00e9ho velitele pro Pacifik zhruba dv\u011b t\u0159etiny rusk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 ekonomiky funguj\u00ed d\u00edky masivn\u00ed podpo\u0159e \u010c\u00edny, samotn\u00e9 NATO \u010c\u00ednu ofici\u00e1ln\u011b ozna\u010duje za hlavn\u00edho podporovatele rusk\u00e9 agrese. Ukrajinsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost i arm\u00e1da jsou na hranici sil. State\u010dn\u011b dr\u017e\u00ed obrannou linii. Rozhodn\u011b neprohr\u00e1li, ale hlavn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 a spole\u010densk\u00e9 trendy jsou proti nim. Jinak to ani b\u00fdt nem\u016f\u017ee, kdy\u017e \u010dtvrt\u00fdm rokem osam\u011ble br\u00e1n\u00ed Evropu p\u0159ed takhle obrovskou invaz\u00ed. My jim pos\u00edl\u00e1me pen\u00edze, zbran\u011b, humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed pomoc a zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace. A nic v\u00edc. Na boji\u0161ti jsou proti p\u0159esile sami.<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edm se hrdinov\u00e9 a hrdinky na\u0161\u00ed generace ze v\u0161ech sil dr\u017e\u00ed, ale sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9ho kolapsu Ukrajiny bohu\u017eel nere\u00e1ln\u00fd nen\u00ed. Pokud by Ukrajina byla silou donucena ke kapitulaci, m\u016f\u017eeme se dostat do situace, kdy do unijn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f budou ut\u00edkat vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed miliony lid\u00ed vyd\u011b\u0161en\u00fdch z rusk\u00fdch hrdlo\u0159ez\u016f. Rusko by si p\u0159\u00e1lo Ukrajinu alespo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b ovl\u00e1dnout, tedy z\u00edskat jej\u00ed zbran\u011b, munici a \u010d\u00e1st jej\u00ed populace n\u00e1siln\u011b donutit slou\u017eit v rusk\u00e9 uniform\u011b proti evropsk\u00fdm zem\u00edm. I s t\u00edmto nejhor\u0161\u00edm mo\u017en\u00fdm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em mus\u00edme po\u010d\u00edtat, proto\u017ee se v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch jednotk\u00e1ch let st\u00e1t m\u016f\u017ee. Zat\u00edm toti\u017e jako evropsk\u00e9 alian\u010dn\u00ed st\u00e1ty nejsme ochotni ud\u011blat nic, co by zm\u011bnilo strategick\u00e9 negativn\u00ed trendy sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed do t\u00e9to temnoty.<\/p>

Jako evropsk\u00e9 alian\u010dn\u00ed st\u00e1ty nejsme ochotni do Ukrajiny vyslat na\u0161e vojensk\u00e9 kontingenty. Proto\u017ee jich re\u00e1ln\u011b m\u00e1me m\u00e1lo a prioritizujeme sami sebe – tedy obranu baltsk\u00e9ho regionu NATO. A tak\u00e9 nev\u00edme, zdali bychom t\u00edm nezni\u010dili k\u0159ehk\u00e9 spojenectv\u00ed s Trumpovou Amerikou, kter\u00e1 by n\u00e1m mohla \u0159\u00edct – Putina jste nasunut\u00edm sv\u00fdch vojsk do Ukrajiny vyprovokovali, tak\u017ee s n\u00e1mi p\u0159i obran\u011b NATO nepo\u010d\u00edtejte. Co\u017e by pro baltsk\u00e9 republiky byl faktick\u00fd rozsudek smrti. Tak\u017ee na\u0161e voj\u00e1ky do p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch boj\u016f v Ukrajin\u011b zat\u00edm nevy\u0161leme.<\/p>

Jako bohat\u00e9 unijn\u00ed st\u00e1ty nejsme ochotni ani zatla\u010dit na hlavn\u00edho sponzora rusk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky – \u010c\u00ednu. Na\u0161e evropsk\u00e9 ekonomiky jsou s \u010c\u00ednou siln\u011b prov\u00e1zan\u00e9, tak\u017ee si na\u0161i politici nedovol\u00ed preferovat p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed Ukrajiny p\u0159ed ekonomickou bolest\u00ed na\u0161ich zem\u00ed, kterou by evropsk\u00e9 sankce na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd totalitn\u00ed re\u017eim p\u0159inesly. \u010c\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed komunist\u00e9 se tak mohou sm\u00e1t evropsk\u00fdm po\u017eadavk\u016fm, a\u0165 Peking s obrovskou materi\u00e1ln\u00ed podporou Ruska p\u0159estane. Ka\u017ed\u00fdch p\u00e1r t\u00fddn\u016f do Pekingu p\u0159ij\u00ed\u017ed\u00ed libovoln\u00fd evropsk\u00fd politik, kter\u00fd sice spr\u00e1vn\u011b vyhubuje za \u010d\u00ednskou podporu rusk\u00e9ho vra\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed Evropan\u016f, ale druh\u00fdm dechem pros\u00ed o kontrakty a v\u00fdjimky pro sv\u00e9 firmy. \u010c\u00edna tud\u00ed\u017e podporu pro rusk\u00e9 v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed v Evrop\u011b ka\u017ed\u00fdm rokem zvy\u0161uje, nem\u00e1 jedin\u00fd d\u016fvod s podporou sv\u00e9ho nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edho spojence p\u0159est\u00e1vat. Trumpova Amerika se od pevn\u00e9ho spojenectv\u00ed s Evropou ideologicky odkl\u00e1n\u00ed, co\u017e prakticky znamen\u00e1, \u017ee s americkou vojenskou silou m\u016f\u017eeme pro obranu Evropy po\u010d\u00edtat \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l m\u00e9n\u011b. <\/p>

Dnes m\u00e1 Rusko proti Ukrajin\u011b nasazeno k milionu voj\u00e1k\u016f v r\u016fzn\u00fdch rol\u00edch. Alian\u010dn\u00ed zem\u011b maj\u00ed v baltsk\u00e9m regionu nasazeny pouze des\u00edtky tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f. Ten nepom\u011br je do o\u010d\u00ed bij\u00edc\u00ed.<\/ins><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Co se tedy stane, pokud se v\u00e1lka p\u0159enese na na\u0161e \u00fazem\u00ed? \u010cesk\u00e9 instituce maj\u00ed p\u0159i nejlep\u0161\u00ed snaze st\u00e1le sv\u00e9 limity. Jsou dimenzovan\u00e9 na obdob\u00ed m\u00edru, ne v\u00e1lky. D\u00e1v\u00e1me dlouhodob\u011b m\u00e1lo financ\u00ed na arm\u00e1du a budeme podle nov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy d\u00e1vat je\u0161t\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e jsme se jako zem\u011b zav\u00e1zali. Ale i kdybychom plnili z\u00e1vazky vzorn\u011b, plat\u00ed star\u00e1 pravda: Arm\u00e1dy vyhr\u00e1vaj\u00ed bitvy. V\u00e1lky vyhr\u00e1v\u00e1 spole\u010dnost a ekonomika.<\/b><\/p>\n

Nemluv\u00edme jen o obran\u011b se zbran\u00ed v ruce. Pokud se zastav\u00ed firmy, zadrhnou se kole\u010dka ekonomiky, a to bude ohro\u017eovat cel\u00fd st\u00e1t. <\/p>\n

Z minulosti v\u00edme, \u017ee \u010desk\u00e9 firmy maj\u00ed tuh\u00fd ko\u0159\u00ednek. P\u0159e\u017eily covid, ust\u00e1ly energetickou krizi. Uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee jsou mistry improvizace. Um\u00edme rychle naj\u00edt \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, kdy\u017e n\u00e1m te\u010de do bot a n\u011bjakou dobu t\u00e1hnout za jeden provaz. Vyroj\u00ed se hromady iniciativ, ale kolik z nich vydr\u017e\u00ed? V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b skute\u010dn\u00e9ho konfliktu improvizace nesta\u010d\u00ed a mus\u00edme m\u00edt v\u00edc, ne\u017e jen prvotn\u00ed nad\u0161en\u00ed. Co firmy m\u016f\u017ee zlomit, nen\u00ed nedostatek odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed, ale zastaral\u00e1 struktura na\u0161\u00ed ekonomiky, proces\u016f a hlavn\u011b to, \u017ee nejsou p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 a nedok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed si p\u0159edstavit, co je m\u016f\u017ee \u010dekat. <\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da i rigidn\u00ed firmy kolabovaly na tom, \u017ee \u010dekaly na rozkazy shora. Odoln\u00e9 firmy, jak uk\u00e1zala praxe v Ukrajin\u011b, funguj\u00ed na principu decentralizace \u2013 velitelstv\u00ed ur\u010d\u00ed c\u00edl, ale cestu k n\u011bmu vol\u00ed lid\u00e9 na m\u00edst\u011b. Funguje m\u00edt \u0161t\u00edhl\u00e9 procesy a anga\u017eovan\u00fd t\u00fdm, kter\u00fd p\u0159eb\u00edr\u00e1 odpov\u011bdnost.  <\/p>\n

Kyberbezpe\u010dnost je o lidech, ne o antiviru. Nejslab\u0161\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nkem je \u010dlov\u011bk. Data ukazuj\u00ed varovn\u00fd trend: ob\u011b\u0165mi sofistikovan\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f nejsou senio\u0159i, ale vzd\u011blan\u00ed lid\u00e9 ve v\u011bku 30-50. Mus\u00edme tr\u00e9novat kritick\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed a digit\u00e1ln\u00ed obez\u0159etnost tak, aby na\u0161e t\u00fdmy odolaly psychologick\u00e9mu n\u00e1tlaku \u00fato\u010dn\u00edka.<\/b><\/p>\n

V\u0161echny zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 kroky maj\u00ed p\u0159idanou hodnotu i bez v\u00e1lky. P\u0159echod na v\u00fdrobu s vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed mar\u017e\u00ed, zefektivn\u011bn\u00ed rozhodovac\u00edch proces\u016f a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed odolnosti zam\u011bstnanc\u016f proti manipulaci \u2013 to v\u0161e d\u011bl\u00e1 firmu siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ziskov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a konkurenceschopn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu u\u017e dnes. Odolnost nen\u00ed n\u00e1klad nav\u00edc, je to investice do zdrav\u00ed firmy. Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 se tedy zam\u00fd\u0161let nad transformac\u00ed hned, i bez ohledu na komplikovanou geopolitickou situaci. <\/p>\n

Prvn\u00edm krokem je p\u0159estat t\u00e9ma bezpe\u010dnosti ignorovat s t\u00edm, \u017ee n\u00e1m se to st\u00e1t nem\u016f\u017ee. Mus\u00edme za\u010d\u00edt mluvit, pl\u00e1novat a tr\u00e9novat krizov\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 p\u0159esahuj\u00ed r\u00e1mec b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch po\u017e\u00e1rn\u00edch cvi\u010den\u00ed a vypl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed testu na BOZP, kter\u00e9 slou\u017e\u00ed snad v\u00fdhradn\u011b k tomu, abychom si od\u0161krtli povinn\u00e9 pol\u00ed\u010dko. <\/p>\n

A\u017e si p\u0159izn\u00e1me, \u017ee bezpe\u010dnost a fungov\u00e1n\u00ed ve v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m stavu je pro \u010desk\u00e9 firmy t\u00e9ma k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, bude \u010das za\u010d\u00edt si kl\u00e1st dal\u0161\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky, jak je udr\u017eet funk\u010dn\u00ed v hor\u0161\u00edch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch, ne\u017e byl covid nebo energetick\u00e1 krize. <\/p>\n

Co maj\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9 firmy o\u010dek\u00e1vat od st\u00e1tn\u00edch instituc\u00ed, IZS, tedy arm\u00e1dy, policie, hasi\u010d\u016f nebo N\u00daKIB? A co mus\u00ed d\u011blat samy? Jak se st\u00e1t sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed kritick\u00e9 infrastruktury a co to pro n\u011b bude znamenat? Jak\u00e9 jsou p\u0159\u00edklady ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed? <\/p>\n

V Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm centru Evropsk\u00e9 hodnoty rozj\u00ed\u017ed\u00edme s\u00e9rii briefing\u016f a konzultac\u00ed pro zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed odolnosti \u010desk\u00fdch firem, kde na v\u0161echny tyto ot\u00e1zky budou odpov\u00eddat ty nejkompetentn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed postavy v \u010desk\u00e9m i mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00ed. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Tom\u00e1\u0161 Kope\u010dn\u00fd<\/h3>

until recently the government\u2019s special representative for Ukraine and formerly deputy minister of defense<\/p><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Jakub Janda<\/h3>

Director, European Values Center for Security Policy<\/p><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Link to\u00a0Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 Noviny article. P\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed doba, kdy \u010desk\u00e9 firmy pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed m\u00edt promy\u0161leno, jak budou p\u0159ipraveny na velk\u00e9 krize nebo v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd konflikt kousek od na\u0161ich hranic. Bez dostate\u010dn\u00e9 vnit\u0159n\u00ed odolnosti se jim rychle m\u016f\u017ee rozsypat business model.\u00a0 Rusko d\u00e1le proti Ukrajin\u011b vede brut\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lku, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 podle posledn\u00edch odhad\u016f kumulativn\u011b nad dva milion ob\u011bt\u00ed. Ukrajina je […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":42775,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[500],"tags":[107,574],"class_list":["post-42778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-jakub-janda","tag-tomas-kopecny"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat would a war in the Czech Republic look like? - European Values Center for Security Policy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/what-would-a-war-in-the-czech-republic-look-like\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What would a war in the Czech Republic look like? - European Values Center for Security Policy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Link to\u00a0Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 Noviny article. P\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed doba, kdy \u010desk\u00e9 firmy pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed m\u00edt promy\u0161leno, jak budou p\u0159ipraveny na velk\u00e9 krize nebo v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd konflikt kousek od na\u0161ich hranic. Bez dostate\u010dn\u00e9 vnit\u0159n\u00ed odolnosti se jim rychle m\u016f\u017ee rozsypat business model.\u00a0 Rusko d\u00e1le proti Ukrajin\u011b vede brut\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lku, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 podle posledn\u00edch odhad\u016f kumulativn\u011b nad dva milion ob\u011bt\u00ed. 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