{"id":42321,"date":"2026-02-13T12:03:46","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T10:03:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/?p=42321"},"modified":"2026-02-15T18:57:47","modified_gmt":"2026-02-15T16:57:47","slug":"we-dont-know-interpreting-recent-developments-in-chinas-leadership","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/we-dont-know-interpreting-recent-developments-in-chinas-leadership\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018We Don\u2019t Know\u2019: Interpreting Recent Developments in China\u2019s Leadership"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"42321\" class=\"elementor elementor-42321\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-159e051c elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"159e051c\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1ac1e3d4\" data-id=\"1ac1e3d4\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-685c04cb elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"685c04cb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-no-translation=\"\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Photo: Unsplash<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6fe751cb elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6fe751cb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-no-translation=\"\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<style>.elementor-element-6fe751cb{display:none !important}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6e747930 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6e747930\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-6c0ffd93\" data-id=\"6c0ffd93\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-1550ea6 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"1550ea6\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-no-translation=\"\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-eab70ea\" data-id=\"eab70ea\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-242254fa elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"242254fa\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2>What is happening?<\/h2><p>On January 24, an announcement by China\u2019s Ministry of Defense that two senior generals \u2014 Zhang Youxia (\u5f35\u53c8\u4fe0) and Liu Zhenli (\u5289\u632f\u7acb) \u2014 were under investigation for \u201cserious violations of discipline and law\u201d took many observers by surprise. Since then, rumors have circulated about why Chinese President Xi Jinping (\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73) would remove two high-ranking generals whom he himself appointed.<\/p><p>The fact that the People\u2019s Liberation Army (PLA) is deeply corrupt and has been under intense scrutiny during Xi\u2019s rule is well-documented. What, then, is different this time? And what do we actually know about the internal dynamics within the PLA and the top leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)?<\/p><p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/cz\/podcast\/preview-10-questions-on-the-detention-of-zhang\/id1653064469?i=1000747237508&amp;l=cs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recent episode<\/a> of the <em>Sharp China<\/em> podcast, analyst Bill Bishop responded \u201cwe don\u2019t know\u201d nearly 20 times in relation to questions about the circumstances of the purge. This alone illustrates how little insight experts have into developments within China\u2019s top political bodies, such as the CCP Politburo or the Central Military Commission (CMC). Given these limitations, it is worth focusing on what can be established with reasonable confidence.<\/p><h2>\u00a0<\/h2><h2>What is the broader picture?<\/h2><p>To understand the significance of these events, it is essential to clarify the role of the CMC, as the CCP\u2019s top military leadership body, rather than a state institution. By extension, the PLA is not a national military in the Western sense, but a <strong>party-controlled army whose primary mission is to protect the CCP and safeguard its rule<\/strong>. Ideological loyalty, not professional military autonomy, remains paramount.<\/p><p>After the recent shakeup which saw another two members expelled, the CMC is down from its original seven to only two members: Xi Jinping, as chairman, and Zhang Shengmin (\u5f35\u5347\u6c11), as vice chairman.<\/p><p>The January 24 announcement stated that the two generals<em> \u201care suspected of serious violations of discipline and law<\/em>,\u201d and that<em> \u201cit has been decided to place Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli under investigation.\u201d<\/em><\/p><p>Zhang Youxia, 75, a first-ranked vice chairman of the CMC, is one of the very few senior PLA officers with actual combat experience, having fought in the Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979. His father was a PLA general who fought alongside Xi Jinping\u2019s father, Xi Zhongxun in the Chinese Civil War, placing the younger Zhang firmly among the so-called princelings. He was widely regarded as one of Xi\u2019s most trusted military allies, making his ouster all the more surprising. Many analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/chinadrew.substack.com\/p\/the-demise-of-zhang-youxia-hits-different\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">believe<\/a> <strong>Zhang played a<\/strong> <strong>stabilizing role within the PLA<\/strong>, helping to temper unrealistic military expectations and providing Xi with a more realistic assessment of the PLA\u2019s capabilities.<\/p><p>Following the announcement, speculation exploded across social media and even made headlines in traditional media outlets. According to various reports and rumors, including claims cited in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/china\/chinas-top-general-accused-of-giving-nuclear-secrets-to-u-s-b8f59dae\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Wall Street Journal<\/a>, Zhang was <strong>accused of leaking nuclear secrets<\/strong> to the United States. Other reports mentioned another recent military scandal \u2014 the apparent <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/YaxueCao\/status\/2017579387198087533?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">suicide<\/a> of He Weidong (\u4f55\u885b\u6771), a former CMC vice chairman who had previously been targeted in an anti-corruption campaign.<\/p><p>At present, there is no way to verify any of the rumors surrounding these incidents. <em>We do not know<\/em> whether any of them are grounded in fact and can only speculate whether it was the <strong>leader\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>paranoia<\/strong> and fear of powerful subordinates, or a sincere <strong>effort to fight corruption <\/strong>and<strong> prevent factionalism within the military, thus ensuring absolute obedience from the PLA. <\/strong><\/p><p>What makes the fall of Zhang and Liu Zhenli, 64, different from previous purges is the speed and severity of the process. Both men were reportedly last seen in public in late December, with their fall publicly announced in January \u2014 far more quickly than in prior cases. The language used in official announcements and PLA editorials has also been unusually harsh. According to the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.81.cn\/yw_208727\/16439153.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PLA Daily<\/a>, their actions \u201cseriously undermined the image and authority\u201d (\u5f62\u8c61\u5a01\u4fe1) of the military and \u201cseriously trampled\u201c (\u4e25\u91cd\u8df5\u8e0f) institutional norms \u2014 phrasing that implies direct defiance or disregard for Xi\u2019s authority. As a Jamestown Foundation analyst <a href=\"https:\/\/jamestown.org\/zhang-youxias-differences-with-xi-jinping-led-to-his-purge\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">has argued<\/a>, this suggests that the two men, <em>\u201cmost likely fell from power due to disagreements with Xi Jinping over PLA development, particularly the timeline for joint operations training, and may have pursued policies or issued orders that ran counter to Xi\u2019s directives.\u201d<\/em><\/p><p>The <strong>timing<\/strong> is also telling. Reports indicate that Xi Jinping has repeatedly ordered the PLA to be <strong>combat-ready by 2027<\/strong>\u2014a year that marks both the PLA\u2019s centenary and the likely beginning of a fourth term for the Chinese president. The moves against these senior figures may signal that Xi has lost patience with a military he views as insufficiently prepared, insufficiently loyal, or both.<\/p><h2>\u00a0<\/h2><h2>Why does it matter?<\/h2><p>What is clear is that <strong>Xi Jinping is further consolidating power<\/strong>. On Wednesday February 4, he held phone calls with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump \u2014 an unmistakable signal of confidence and authority.<\/p><p>The official Chinese <a href=\"http:\/\/politics.people.com.cn\/n1\/2026\/0204\/c1024-40659623.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">readout<\/a> of the call with Trump stated that, \u201c<em>China is true to its word and resolute in its actions; <strong>we do what we say<\/strong><\/em>.\u201d It also emphasized the Taiwan issue, asserting that, <em>\u201cTaiwan is Chinese territory; China must defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity and will never allow Taiwan to be separated. The U.S. side must handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with caution.\u201d<\/em> This can be read as a direct warning to the United States: <strong>stay away from Taiwan and cease arms sales to Taipei<\/strong>.<\/p><p>Trump\u2019s reported response on his Truth Social platform \u2014 that he \u201cvalues China\u2019s concerns regarding the Taiwan question\u201d and is willing to maintain communication to keep U.S.\u2013China relations \u201cgood and stable\u201d\u2014 raises important questions about future U.S. signaling and deterrence.<\/p><p>This all unfolds in the context of a new U.S. Security Strategy that appears less confrontational toward China, alongside persistent concerns about Taiwan\u2019s defense spending and readiness.<\/p><p>Taken together, the purges within the PLA may not signal weakness but rather a <strong>leadership preparing, impatiently and forcefully, for decisions it considers historically inevitable<\/strong>.<\/p><p><em>Disclaimer: This article was submitted on Friday, February 6, and does not reflect any subsequent developments.<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Photo: Unsplash Foto: Unsplash What is happening? On January 24, an announcement by China\u2019s Ministry of Defense that two senior generals \u2014 Zhang Youxia (\u5f35\u53c8\u4fe0) and Liu Zhenli (\u5289\u632f\u7acb) \u2014 were under investigation for \u201cserious violations of discipline and law\u201d took many observers by surprise. Since then, rumors have circulated about why Chinese President Xi [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":42325,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[500],"tags":[534],"class_list":["post-42321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-zuzana-koskova"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u2018We Don\u2019t Know\u2019: Interpreting Recent Developments in China\u2019s Leadership - European Values Center for Security Policy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/we-dont-know-interpreting-recent-developments-in-chinas-leadership\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u2018We Don\u2019t Know\u2019: Interpreting Recent Developments in China\u2019s Leadership - European Values Center for Security Policy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Photo: Unsplash Foto: Unsplash What is happening? On January 24, an announcement by China\u2019s Ministry of Defense that two senior generals \u2014 Zhang Youxia (\u5f35\u53c8\u4fe0) and Liu Zhenli (\u5289\u632f\u7acb) \u2014 were under investigation for \u201cserious violations of discipline and law\u201d took many observers by surprise. Since then, rumors have circulated about why Chinese President Xi [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/we-dont-know-interpreting-recent-developments-in-chinas-leadership\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"European Values Center for Security Policy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-02-13T10:03:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-15T16:57:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/China-Man_in_coat_statue.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2160\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1136\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ond\u0159ej Ber\u00e1nek\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ond\u0159ej Ber\u00e1nek\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/europeanvalues.cz\\\/we-dont-know-interpreting-recent-developments-in-chinas-leadership\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/europeanvalues.cz\\\/we-dont-know-interpreting-recent-developments-in-chinas-leadership\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ond\u0159ej Ber\u00e1nek\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/europeanvalues.cz\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7724fb271acacd215231c937a200a510\"},\"headline\":\"\u2018We Don\u2019t Know\u2019: Interpreting Recent Developments in China\u2019s Leadership\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-02-13T10:03:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-15T16:57:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/europeanvalues.cz\\\/we-dont-know-interpreting-recent-developments-in-chinas-leadership\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":2258,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/europeanvalues.cz\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/europeanvalues.cz\\\/we-dont-know-interpreting-recent-developments-in-chinas-leadership\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/europeanvalues.cz\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/02\\\/China-Man_in_coat_statue.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Zuzana Ko\u0161kov\u00e1\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Articles\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/europeanvalues.cz\\\/we-dont-know-interpreting-recent-developments-in-chinas-leadership\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/europeanvalues.cz\\\/we-dont-know-interpreting-recent-developments-in-chinas-leadership\\\/\",\"name\":\"\u2018We Don\u2019t Know\u2019: Interpreting Recent Developments in China\u2019s Leadership - 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