{"id":39516,"date":"2025-05-06T12:03:25","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T10:03:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/?p=39516"},"modified":"2025-05-12T15:49:51","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T13:49:51","slug":"migrant-workers-as-subjects-of-a-taiwan-strait-contingency","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/migrant-workers-as-subjects-of-a-taiwan-strait-contingency\/","title":{"rendered":"Migrant Workers as Subjects of a Taiwan Strait Contingency"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"39516\" class=\"elementor elementor-39516\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6654866 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6654866\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-9f2d5c5\" data-id=\"9f2d5c5\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-be68343 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"be68343\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-no-translation=\"\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Photo by EVC<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6fc7f79 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6fc7f79\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-no-translation=\"\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<style>.elementor-element-6fc7f79{display:none !important}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-5f181ad4 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"5f181ad4\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1d038e1c\" data-id=\"1d038e1c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-772e6b7 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"772e6b7\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-no-translation=\"\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-24a9fdca\" data-id=\"24a9fdca\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2deaa78a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2deaa78a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>An escalation<\/strong> of tensions in the <strong>Taiwan Strait<\/strong>\u2014whether it transpires as a <strong>maritime blockade<\/strong> or a<strong> kinetic attack<\/strong>\u2014would bring about <strong>disastrous social and economic consequences<\/strong>. Given the importance of the Taiwan Strait to <strong>international maritime trade<\/strong> and Taiwan\u2019s critical role in <strong>supply chains of strategic technologies<\/strong>, including <strong>semiconductors<\/strong>, crisis scenarios consider several grave repercussions. These include immediate <a href=\"https:\/\/rhg.com\/research\/taiwan-economic-disruptions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>disruptions<\/strong><\/a><strong> to global economic activity<\/strong> valued at over two trillion dollars, threats to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npi.or.jp\/en\/research\/data\/npi_research_note_kawashima_en_20230701.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Japan\u2019s energy security<\/strong><\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/hcss.nl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Taiwan-The-Cost-of-conflict-HCSS-2024.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">shortages<\/a> in the EU, which would <strong>exacerbate economic inequality<\/strong>, <strong>poverty<\/strong>, and the <strong>functioning of critical sectors<\/strong>.<\/p><p>Simultaneously, a key group of actors directly responsible for Taiwan\u2019s economic prosperity is frequently overlooked in Taiwan contingency scenarios \u2013 over 829 thousand <strong>migrant workers <\/strong>from Southeast Asia, over half of whom work in the manufacturing sector. These professionals, who hail mainly from Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand, would be <strong>directly affected <\/strong>by<strong> escalations in the Taiwan Strait<\/strong>, whether due to supply chain disruptions limiting the operations at their workplaces or the need to evacuate from the main island. <strong>Humanitarian concerns<\/strong> would be a <strong>priority for key ASEAN governments <\/strong>in the case of a contingency, and they should not remain ignored by policy analysts in Brussels, Washington, DC, and Tokyo.<\/p><p>Among the four countries, <strong>the Philippines<\/strong> is arguably<strong> most explicit<\/strong> about its preparations to protect its citizens in case of an escalation in the Taiwan Strait. In his April 1 speech commemorating the 38th anniversary of the Northern Luzon Command, Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff General Romeo Brawner <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sunstar.com.ph\/manila\/afp-chief-orders-troops-to-prepare-for-possible-taiwan-invasion\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">said<\/a>, &#8220;<strong>If something happens to Taiwan, inevitably we will be involved<\/strong>. There are 250,000 OFWs [Overseas Filipino Workers] working in Taiwan, and we will have to rescue them.&#8221; Facing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rappler.com\/philippines\/coast-guard-says-china-ship-conducting-illegal-survey\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">maritime threats<\/a> from China in the West Philippine Sea, Manila recently <a href=\"https:\/\/focustaiwan.tw\/politics\/202504220005\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>eased<\/strong><\/a><strong> restrictions on official exchanges with Taiwan<\/strong>, and there are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.manilatimes.net\/2025\/05\/03\/opinion\/columns\/manilas-risky-tango-with-taipei-strategic-calculus-or-diplomatic-provocation\/2104758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">clear indications<\/a> that both sides are working towards <strong>institutionalizing defense cooperation<\/strong>. While the Philippines\u2019 newfound openness towards its northern neighbor can be understood <a href=\"https:\/\/amti.csis.org\/the-u-s-philippine-alliance-in-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">within the context<\/a> of its <strong>alliance with the United States<\/strong>, the <strong>humanitarian consequences <\/strong>of a contingency for its citizens are <strong>an equally important factor<\/strong>.<\/p><p>While <strong>other Southeast Asian countries <\/strong>remain<strong> more muted<\/strong> in their communication about the potential implications of the Taiwan Strait contingency, they emphasize the<strong> protection of their citizens<\/strong> as a <strong>pivotal consideration<\/strong>. In Jakarta, Judha Nugraha, the Director of Indonesian Citizens Protection Overseas at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kompas.id\/baca\/internasional\/2023\/04\/14\/indonesia-siapkan-rencana-darurat-terkait-taiwan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">underscored<\/a> the <strong>importance of preparations for evacuating Indonesian citizens<\/strong>, mainly <strong>migrant workers<\/strong>, from Taiwan.<\/p><p>The patterns of China\u2019s increasingly belligerent behavior in the Taiwan Strait might have direct consequences for the<strong> physical safety <\/strong>and <strong>well-being of migrant workers<\/strong>. It is significant that, beyond manufacturing and care work, the sector which is most dependent on overseas laborers is <a href=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/taiwans-distant-water-fleet-still-on-troubled-waters\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Taiwan\u2019s fishing industry<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 and approximately two-thirds of foreign fishers employed on Taiwanese vessels come from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spa.org.tw\/article\/415\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Indonesia<\/a>. Beijing\u2019s increasingly <strong>militarized coast guard <\/strong>continues to play <a href=\"https:\/\/www.taipeitimes.com\/News\/feat\/archives\/2025\/01\/14\/2003830158\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a growing role<\/a> in China\u2019s grayzone tactics aimed at Taiwan, including <strong>intimidation of Taiwanese crews<\/strong>. The November 2024 <a href=\"https:\/\/focustaiwan.tw\/cross-strait\/202411150018\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">incident<\/a> of the Chinese Coast Guard <strong>detaining <\/strong>the crew of the <strong>Taiwanese fishing ship Tachinman 88<\/strong>, which included three Indonesian crew members, serves as a <strong>clear warning<\/strong>. While the Penghu-registered vessel was detained for illegal fishing, the incident demonstrates that migrant fishers could <strong>fall prey to political manipulation<\/strong> amid rising cross-strait tensions.<\/p><p>In September 2023, ASEAN conducted its<strong> first-ever exclusive joint military exercises<\/strong>. Hosted by Indonesia, the ASEAN Solidarity Exercise in Natuna 2023 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aseanwonk.com\/p\/assessing-aseans-new-military-drill-indonesia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ASEX-01N)<\/a> highlighted the timeliness of <strong>strengthening intra-grouping cooperation on maritime security issues<\/strong>, even if ASEAN is not a military alliance. Indeed, <strong>tensions in the South China Sea<\/strong> might serve as an explanation for why ASEAN decided to hold the drills. Nevertheless, as Indonesia <a href=\"https:\/\/eastasiaforum.org\/2023\/10\/27\/asex-01n-strengthens-the-intra-asean-military-landscape\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">emphasized<\/a> the <strong>non-combat nature of the exercise<\/strong>, which included <strong>humanitarian assistance <\/strong>and <strong>disaster relief,<\/strong> it is critical to consider how such coordination plans could be put into practice at a time when Southeast Asian countries would need to<strong> evacuate their citizens from Taiwan<\/strong>.<\/p><p>The <strong>hedging behavior<\/strong> of many Southeast Asian countries, also known as \u201c<strong>bamboo diplomacy<\/strong>,\u201d may drive Bangkok, Hanoi, and Jakarta to subdue their communication about plans for a possible Taiwan contingency. Nevertheless, given the <strong>human cost <\/strong>of a potential escalation and the<strong> economic ramifications<\/strong> of disruptions in the flow of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.taiwannextgenfoundation.org\/single-post\/international-labor-migration-in-taiwan-a-missed-opportunity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>remittances<\/strong><\/a><strong> from migrant workers<\/strong> in Taiwan, ASEAN capitals are paying<strong> close attention<\/strong> to developments in the Taiwan Strait. <strong>A Taiwan contingency would be a Southeast Asia contingency<\/strong>, and it is high time these so far overlooked stakeholders are <strong>given the merited seat at the table <\/strong>in conversations about effectively deterring Chinese aggression against the democratic island nation.\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Photo by EVC Foto: Evropsk\u00e9 hodnoty An escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait\u2014whether it transpires as a maritime blockade or a kinetic attack\u2014would bring about disastrous social and economic consequences. Given the importance of the Taiwan Strait to international maritime trade and Taiwan\u2019s critical role in supply chains of strategic technologies, including semiconductors, crisis [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":39524,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[500],"tags":[495],"class_list":["post-39516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-marcin-jerzewski"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Migrant Workers as Subjects of a Taiwan Strait Contingency - European Values Center for Security Policy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/en\/migrant-workers-as-subjects-of-a-taiwan-strait-contingency\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Migrant Workers as Subjects of a Taiwan Strait Contingency - European Values Center for Security Policy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Photo by EVC Foto: Evropsk\u00e9 hodnoty An escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait\u2014whether it transpires as a maritime blockade or a kinetic attack\u2014would bring about disastrous social and economic consequences. 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