![\"\"](\"https:\/\/interfaxenergy.com\/images\/post-content\/Sakhalin-2-Gazprom-blurb.jpg\")
<\/p>\nV\u00a0souvislosti s\u00a0aktu\u00e1ln\u00edm v\u00fdvojem na Ukrajin\u011b nab\u00fdv\u00e1 po n\u011bkolika letech op\u011bt na d\u016fle\u017eitosti ot\u00e1zka z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010cR energetick\u00fdmi surovinami z\u00a0\u00fazem\u00ed Rusk\u00e9 federace. Nab\u00edz\u00ed se p\u0159itom zejm\u00e9na srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0rokem 2009, kdy spory o ceny plynu mezi Ukrajinou a Ruskem vyvrcholily v\u00a0p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek t\u00e9to suroviny do EU a zejm\u00e9na ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti Unie zp\u016fsobily v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 probl\u00e9my.<\/p>\n
M\u016f\u017ee se nyn\u00ed podobn\u00e1 situace opakovat a hroz\u00ed \u010cech\u016fm nedostatek paliv? M\u016f\u017ee, nicm\u00e9n\u011b energetick\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost se v\u00a0minul\u00fdch letech t\u011b\u0161ila v\u00a0r\u00e1mci agendy \u010desk\u00e9ho ministerstva pr\u016fmyslu i politik EU zna\u010dn\u00e9 d\u016fle\u017eitosti a v\u00a0kombinaci s\u00a0dlouhodobou politikou diverzifikace dod\u00e1vek surovin, kterou zah\u00e1jila ji\u017e Klausova vl\u00e1da v\u00a090. letech, \u010di roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f strategick\u00fdch rezerv by tak p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd v\u00fdpadek toku paliv z\u00a0Ruska p\u0159es Ukrajinu nem\u011bl bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed fat\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1sledky.<\/p>\n
Doprava ropy do \u010cR je v\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b realizov\u00e1na skrz ropovody Dru\u017eba (58,5 %), kter\u00fd dov\u00e1d\u00ed ropu z\u00a0rusk\u00fdch lo\u017eisek na Sibi\u0159i skrz Ukrajinu, a IKL (41,5 %), jen\u017e dod\u00e1v\u00e1 do \u010ceska arabskou ropu. V\u00fdznam Dru\u017eby pro \u010cR p\u0159itom dlouhodob\u011b kles\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b ve prosp\u011bch IKL a se svou maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacitou a\u017e 11,5 milion\u016f tun ro\u010dn\u011b by tento ropovod mohl v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby pokr\u00fdt celou spot\u0159ebu \u010cR, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se zem\u011b st\u00e1v\u00e1 relativn\u011b nez\u00e1vislou jak na tranzitn\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b, tak na rusk\u00e9 zdrojov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u011b. Velmi d\u016fle\u017eitou roli v\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu hraj\u00ed rovn\u011b\u017e st\u00e1tn\u00ed sklady ropy v\u00a0Nelahozevsi, kter\u00e9 mohou v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b akutn\u00ed pot\u0159eby z\u00e1sobovat \u010deskou spot\u0159ebu na v\u00edce ne\u017e 90 dn\u00ed.<\/p>\n
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Rusk\u00e1 t\u011b\u017eebn\u00ed plo\u0161ina Sachalin-2. Zdroj: https:\/\/interfaxenergy.com\/<\/p>\n
I v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b dod\u00e1vek plynu bylo v\u00a0minul\u00fdch letech mo\u017en\u00e9 pozorovat zna\u010dn\u00fd pokrok. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2013 byl zprovozn\u011bn plynovod Gazela, kter\u00fd napojil \u010cesko na severn\u00ed cestu rusk\u00e9ho plynu skrz dno Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e do N\u011bmecka (plynovodem Nordstream). \u010cesk\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost na rusk\u00e9m plynu ve v\u00fd\u0161i zhruba 78 % celkov\u00e9 spot\u0159eby (zbytek m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt dopravov\u00e1n z\u00a0Norska) se Gazelou sice nesn\u00ed\u017eila, nicm\u00e9n\u011b v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b od\u0159\u00edznut\u00ed zdroj\u016f proud\u00edc\u00edch skrz Ukrajinu by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 tento v\u00fdpadek pokr\u00fdt pr\u00e1v\u011b severn\u00ed cestou.<\/p>\n
Hor\u0161\u00ed situace by nastala v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b kompletn\u00edho od\u0159\u00edznut\u00ed EU od rusk\u00e9ho plynu a ropy. Maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacity ostatn\u00edch produktovod\u016f by nesta\u010dily pokr\u00fdvat v\u00fdpadek spot\u0159eby nejen v \u010cR, ale i v mnoh\u00fdch dal\u0161\u00edch evropsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tech. U ropy by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b n\u00e1sledoval n\u00e1r\u016fst cen jak na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, tak lok\u00e1ln\u011b i v\u00a0\u010cR, kde by byl n\u00e1soben zv\u00fd\u0161enou konkurenc\u00ed mez\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty o kapacity ropovod\u016f, akutn\u00ed nedostatek t\u00e9to suroviny by nicm\u00e9n\u011b nejsp\u00ed\u0161e nenastal.<\/p>\n
V\u00fdpadek zdroj\u016f plynu by pro EU i \u010cR znamenal mnohem v\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m, jeliko\u017e na rozd\u00edl od ropy existuj\u00ed jen omezen\u00e9 mo\u017enosti alternativn\u00edch dod\u00e1vek. Kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b by sice \u010cR d\u00edky z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016fm plynu, kter\u00e9 pokr\u00fdvaj\u00ed mezi t\u0159etinou a\u017e polovinou \u010desk\u00e9 ro\u010dn\u00ed spot\u0159eby, byla schopn\u00e1 v\u00fdpadek kompenzovat, nicm\u00e9n\u011b pokud by m\u011bl v\u00fdpadek trvalej\u0161\u00ed charakter, neexistuj\u00ed v\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b v\u00a0Evrop\u011b dostate\u010dn\u00e9 kapacity, jak ztr\u00e1tu nahradit. Nejen \u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika by se tak dostala do v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b nap\u0159\u00edklad omezov\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby. Z\u00a0dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska se tud\u00ed\u017e sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti na rusk\u00e9m plynu jev\u00ed jako dal\u0161\u00ed rozumn\u00e9 sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 politiky.<\/p>\n
Na druhou stranu je t\u0159eba \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee komplexn\u00ed a dlouhodob\u00fd v\u00fdpadek rusk\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek je velmi nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd, jeliko\u017e rusk\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost na evropsk\u00fdch platb\u00e1ch za suroviny je rovn\u011b\u017e v\u00fdznamn\u00e1, a zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b N\u011bmecka si Rusko jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee dovolit p\u0159ij\u00edt dlouhodob\u011b \u010di dokonce trvale o jednoho ze sv\u00fdch nejexkluzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016f.<\/p>\n
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