{"id":44507,"date":"2026-08-14T16:17:53","date_gmt":"2026-08-14T14:17:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/?p=44507"},"modified":"2026-11-09T12:29:29","modified_gmt":"2026-11-09T10:29:29","slug":"the-evidence-problem-what-democracies-can-prove-about-election-interference-and-what-they-can-do-about-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/cs\/the-evidence-problem-what-democracies-can-prove-about-election-interference-and-what-they-can-do-about-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Probl\u00e9m d\u016fkaz\u016f: Co m\u016f\u017eou demokracie prok\u00e1zat ohledn\u011b zasahov\u00e1n\u00ed do voleb \u2013 a co proti tomu mohou ud\u011blat"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed centrum Evropsk\u00e9 hodnoty zorganizovalo dne 14. srpna ve spolupr\u00e1ci s\u00a0\u010cesko-tchajwanskou obchodn\u00ed komorou webin\u00e1\u0159 \u201eProbl\u00e9m d\u016fkaz\u016f: Co mohou demokracie prok\u00e1zat ohledn\u011b zasahov\u00e1n\u00ed do voleb \u2013 a co proti tomu mohou ud\u011blat\u201c<\/strong>. Host\u00e9 Ras\u0165o Ku\u017eel, M\u0103d\u0103lin Nec\u0219u\u021bu, Dr. Eve Chiu <\/strong>a Dr. Yu-Hsi Liu<\/strong> debatovali o tom, jak mohou demokracie identifikovat, p\u0159i\u0159adit a reagovat na zasahov\u00e1n\u00ed do voleb ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed, kdy\u017e je nedostatek d\u016fkaz\u016f a \u010dasu a nadm\u011brn\u00e1 reakce m\u016f\u017ee sama o sob\u011b oslabit d\u016fv\u011bru ve\u0159ejnosti.<\/p>

Tato ud\u00e1lost prob\u00edhala pod tzv. Chatham House Rule; n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed obsah byl tedy anonymizov\u00e1n a necituje osobn\u00ed v\u00fdpov\u011bdi.<\/p>

Okno p\u0159ed jistotou<\/strong><\/h2>

Zasahov\u00e1n\u00ed do voleb nep\u0159edstavuje nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed riziko, kdy\u017e ho demokracie nezvl\u00e1dnou odhalit, ale kdy\u017e se nemohou rozhodnout, co ud\u011blat s\u00a0d\u016fkazy, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e maj\u00ed. Informace od rozv\u011bdky mohou b\u00fdt p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u00e9, ale nelze je uve\u0159ejnit. Objevy novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f mohou b\u00fdt d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00e9, ale nejsou pr\u00e1vn\u011b dostate\u010dn\u00e9. Ne\u017e se zdroje p\u0159iprav\u00ed tak, aby byly dostate\u010dn\u00e9 pro soud, volby u\u017e mohou b\u00fdt u konce.<\/p>

Hlavn\u00ed argument webin\u00e1\u0159e nebyl tedy, \u017ee demokracie pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed dokonal\u00e9 informace. Pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed instituce schopn\u00e9 zodpov\u011bdn\u011b jednat i p\u0159i nejistot\u011b. K\u00a0tomu je pot\u0159eba nastavit r\u016fzn\u00e9 hranice, p\u0159i kter\u00fdch bude informovan\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost, zavedena opat\u0159en\u00ed na \u00farovni platforem, zah\u00e1j\u00ed se politick\u00e9 zasahov\u00e1n\u00ed a trest\u00ed st\u00edh\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 op\u00edraj\u00edc\u00ed se o d\u016fv\u011bru, koordinaci, transparentnost a demokratickou zdr\u017eenlivost.<\/p>

Evropa: Kdy\u017e instituce zaost\u00e1vaj\u00ed <\/strong><\/h2>

Evropsk\u00e9 kauzy uk\u00e1zaly, co se stane, kdy\u017e z\u00e1sahy do voleb p\u0159edb\u011bhnou instituce.<\/p>

Na Slovensku se objevila zfal\u0161ovan\u00e1 zvukov\u00e1 nahr\u00e1vka dva dny p\u0159ed parlamentn\u00edmi volbami roku 2023, a to b\u011bhem moratoria na politick\u00e9 kampan\u011b. Jeho \u00fa\u010dinnost nespo\u010d\u00edvala pouze v obsahu, ale tak\u00e9 v\u00a0na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed: nahr\u00e1vka po\u0161kodila d\u016fv\u011bru v\u00a0opozici, novina\u0159in\u011b, v\u00a0romskou men\u0161inu a ve volby obecn\u011b v\u00a0dob\u011b, kdy bylo nejt\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed nach\u00e1zet smyslupln\u00e9 politick\u00e9 protiargumenty. \u010cek\u00e1n\u00ed na definitivn\u00ed odhalen\u00ed vin\u00edka by znamenalo vzd\u00e1t informa\u010dn\u00ed prostor.<\/p>

Moldavsko uk\u00e1zalo siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed model postupu b\u011bhem voleb v\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2025. Investigativn\u00ed novin\u00e1\u0159i pronikly do rusk\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed pro kupov\u00e1n\u00ed hlas\u016f, a t\u00edm dodali ve\u0159ejnosti d\u016fkazy, kter\u00e9 byly v\u00edce d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00e9 ne\u017e pouh\u00e1 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed varov\u00e1n\u00ed. Autority zkombinovali st\u00edh\u00e1n\u00ed, kyberobranu, vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti a v\u00fdpomoc ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed bez toho, aby se uch\u00fdlili k\u00a0praktik\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 by podpo\u0159ily rusk\u00e9 narativy o nelegitimnosti.<\/p>

Rumunsko uk\u00e1zalo dal\u0161\u00ed rizika v\u00a0roce 2025. N\u00e1hl\u00fd vzr\u016fst C\u0103lina Georgesceho odhalil dopady slab\u00e9ho p\u0159edv\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed. Zru\u0161en\u00ed prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb se stalo posledn\u00ed z\u00e1chranou \u2013 ale tak\u00e9 d\u016fkazem, \u017ee jakmile zasahov\u00e1n\u00ed do voleb oslab\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru, ka\u017ed\u00e1 mo\u017en\u00e1 reakce po\u0161kod\u00ed demokracii.<\/p>

Tchaj-wan: Ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 offline<\/strong><\/h2>

Zku\u0161enost Tchaj-wanu ukazuje, pro\u010d boj proti zasahov\u00e1n\u00ed do voleb nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt zredukov\u00e1n pouze na maz\u00e1n\u00ed fale\u0161n\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvk\u016f po tom, co se stanou vir\u00e1ln\u00edmi. Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed t\u00edm, ne\u017e \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 vlivov\u00e9 operace vypluj\u00ed na povrch online, se zako\u0159en\u00ed ve vztaz\u00edch, instituc\u00edch, cestov\u00e1n\u00ed, n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00edch a v\u00a0kan\u00e1lech pro soukromou komunikaci.<\/p>

Pr\u00e1vn\u00ed architektura z\u010d\u00e1sti stoj\u00ed na dvou ustanoven\u00edch: Z\u00e1kon o volb\u00e1ch a odvol\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edch \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk\u016f a z\u00e1kon o volb\u00e1ch a odvol\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed prezidenta a viceprezidenta. Oba z\u00e1kony znemo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed z\u00e1m\u011brn\u00e9 \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nepravdiv\u00fdch informac\u00ed se z\u00e1m\u011brem ovlivnit zvolen\u00ed kandid\u00e1ta. Prezidentsk\u00e9 volby z\u00a0roku 2024 se staly d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm otestov\u00e1n\u00edm toho, zda se tato opat\u0159en\u00ed daj\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u011b zav\u00e9st a aplikovat v\u00a0konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edpadech zfal\u0161ovan\u00e9ho pr\u016fzkumy ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, skryt\u00e9ho financov\u00e1n\u00ed a politick\u00e9 mobilizace vztahuj\u00edc\u00ed se k\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b. Tato zku\u0161enost tak\u00e9 popotla\u010dila autority k\u00a0pos\u00edlen\u00ed pod\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed zpr\u00e1v a koordina\u010dn\u00edch mechanism\u016f p\u0159ed dal\u0161\u00edmi volbami.<\/p>

Ov\u0161em pr\u00e1vo dos\u00e1hne pouze na \u010d\u00e1st probl\u00e9mu. B\u011bhem kampan\u011b v\u00a0roce 2024 tvrdilo video vytvo\u0159en\u00e9 AI, \u017ee William Laj m\u00e1 neman\u017eelsk\u00e9ho syna. P\u016fvodn\u011b bylo publikov\u00e1no na vietnamsk\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu, ale kolovalo v\u00a0\u010d\u00edn\u0161tin\u011b \u2013 p\u0159\u00edklad toho, jak m\u016f\u017eou b\u00fdt zkombinov\u00e1ny um\u011bl\u00fd obsah, zahrani\u010dn\u00ed infrastruktura a dom\u00e1c\u00ed politick\u00e9 narativy k\u00a0tomu, aby znemo\u017enily ur\u010den\u00ed zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9ho vin\u00edka.<\/p>

Pr\u016fzkum informa\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b chr\u00e1mu Mazu odhalil slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mechanismy. Ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 offline skrze pout\u011b, dotovan\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bnn\u00e9 pobyty a mezilidskou d\u016fv\u011bru. Pot\u00e9 se p\u0159esouv\u00e1 do soukrom\u00fdch skupin na aplikaci LINE, p\u0159eorganizov\u00e1v\u00e1 zdroje informac\u00ed a ovliv\u0148uje politick\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>

Akademick\u00e9 v\u00fdzkumy nemus\u00ed sta\u010dit na n\u011b\u010d\u00ed usv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed. Mohou v\u0161ak st\u00e1le legitimizovat odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed postupy: pe\u010dliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dohled nad v\u00fdm\u011bnami financovan\u00fdmi ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed, v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed po\u017eadavky na transparentnost, lep\u0161\u00ed koordinace s\u00a0platformami a d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zapojen\u00ed do m\u00edstn\u00edch komunit. V\u00fdzvou pro Tchaj-wan nen\u00ed jen rozeznat zasahov\u00e1n\u00ed, ale p\u0159eru\u0161it ho bez toho, aby samotn\u00e1 reakce po\u0161kodila svobodu demokracie.<\/p>

Jedna p\u0159\u00edru\u010dka, dv\u011b divadla<\/strong><\/h2>

Rusko a \u010c\u00edna nemus\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bt stejn\u00e9 operace \u2013 nebo sladit ka\u017edou kampa\u0148 \u2013 aby se navz\u00e1jem podporovaly.<\/p>

V\u00a0Moldavsku je Rusko st\u00e1le p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm nebezpe\u010d\u00edm. Kupuje hlasy, vychov\u00e1v\u00e1 nov\u00e9 politick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 z\u00e1stupce, zahajuje kyber\u00fatoky a sna\u017e\u00ed se delegitimovat st\u00e1tn\u00ed instituce. \u010c\u00edna pracuje ti\u0161eji skrze telekomunika\u010dn\u00ed infrastruktury, p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed kyber-p\u0159\u00edstup, zapojen\u00ed elit, sponzorovan\u00e9 cesty a vztahy s\u00a0prorusk\u00fdmi politick\u00fdmi silami. Rusko za\u010dne s\u00a0hrou na housle a \u010c\u00edna pom\u00e1h\u00e1 utv\u00e1\u0159et s\u00e1l, ve kter\u00e9m se p\u0159edstaven\u00ed odehr\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/p>

Na Tchaj-wanu je tato hierarchie prohozen\u00e1. \u010c\u00edna vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed hlavn\u00ed politick\u00e9 c\u00edle, m\u00edstn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b, narativy a n\u00e1tlak. Rusk\u00e9 metody a informa\u010dn\u00ed r\u00e1mce mohou st\u00e1le slou\u017eit jako\u017eto pomocn\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b skrz posilov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed anti-z\u00e1padn\u00edch narativ\u016f a sd\u00edlen\u00ed technik na podporu ned\u016fv\u011bry v\u00a0instituce.<\/p>

Toto propojen\u00ed tedy nen\u00ed spojenectv\u00edm, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e vzd\u011bl\u00e1vac\u00edm ekosyst\u00e9mem. Autorit\u00e1\u0159\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 si p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed n\u00e1stroje, narativy a slabiny p\u0159es sv\u00e9 hranice. Demokracie naopak \u010dasto pova\u017euj\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e9 volby za n\u00e1rodn\u00ed v\u00fdjimku. Tato asymetrie p\u0159edstavuje v\u00fdhodu pro ty, co se sna\u017e\u00ed volby ovlivnit.<\/p>

Jednej brzy \u2013 nebo pozd\u011bji zaplat\u00ed\u0161<\/strong><\/h2>

Prvn\u00edm ponau\u010den\u00edm je, \u017ee by demokracie nem\u011bly m\u00edt pocit, \u017ee v\u0161echny d\u016fkazn\u00e9 materi\u00e1ly mus\u00ed dosahovat standard\u016fm trestn\u00edho soudu. Ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 varov\u00e1n\u00ed je opodstatn\u011bn\u00e1 reakce na podez\u0159elou amplifika\u010dn\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165. Zdokumentovan\u00e1 koordinace m\u016f\u017ee ospravedlnit z\u00e1sah ze strany platforem soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch. V\u00fdzkum ukazuj\u00edc\u00ed pevn\u00fd mechanismus ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed ospravedl\u0148uje regula\u010dn\u00ed dohled.\u00a0 Trestn\u00ed st\u00edh\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u00e1vem vy\u017eaduje v\u00edce.<\/p>

Druh\u00e9 ponau\u010den\u00ed je to, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edprava mus\u00ed za\u010d\u00edt p\u0159ed samotn\u00fdm skand\u00e1lem. Av\u0161ak, jak bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno b\u011bhem diskuse, prebunking m\u00e1 jedno omezen\u00ed: Rusko a \u010c\u00edna neust\u00e1le p\u0159izp\u016fsobuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 metody, zat\u00edmco demokracie riskuj\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee se p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed pouze na posledn\u00ed operaci. Spr\u00e1vnou odpov\u011bd\u00ed nen\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00eddat ka\u017ed\u00fd deepfake, platformu nebo proxy dop\u0159edu; ale monitorovat narativy, komunity a zraniteln\u00e1 m\u00edsta instituc\u00ed, kter\u00fdch protivn\u00edci opakovan\u011b zneu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed. Dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee odhalit \u00fatoky na volen\u00ed po\u0161tou, volebn\u00ed autority, aliance, n\u00e1bo\u017eenskou identitu nebo soci\u00e1ln\u00ed soudru\u017enost m\u011bs\u00edce p\u0159ed t\u00edm, ne\u017e jsou tyto narativy p\u0159evedeny do operace napl\u00e1novan\u00e9 na den voleb.<\/p>

Prebunking by se tedy m\u011blo zam\u011b\u0159it m\u00e9n\u011b na pouh\u00e9 odhadov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159esn\u00e9 formy p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed manipulace a v\u00edce na budov\u00e1n\u00ed schopnosti spole\u010dnosti rozeznat jej\u00ed skrytou logiku. Voli\u010di by m\u011bli rozum\u011bt, jak volby funguj\u00ed, pro\u010d velkolep\u00e1 obvin\u011bn\u00ed vyplav\u00e1vaj\u00ed na povrch na posledn\u00ed chv\u00edli a jak zahrani\u010dn\u00ed subjekty p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vztahy do digit\u00e1ln\u00edho vlivu. Nap\u0159\u00edklad na Tchaj-wanu mohou po podez\u0159el\u00fdch online aktivit\u00e1ch n\u00e1sledovat re\u00e1ln\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti, n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bny nebo zm\u011bny v\u00a0lok\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch. Komunitn\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 a m\u00edstn\u00ed politici mohou proto slou\u017eit jako sensory na brzk\u00e1 varov\u00e1n\u00ed spole\u010dn\u011b s\u00a0v\u00fdzkumn\u00edky a platformami.<\/p>

T\u0159et\u00edm ponau\u010den\u00ed se t\u00fdk\u00e1 instituc\u00ed. Volebn\u00ed autority, kybernetick\u00e9 agentury, novin\u00e1\u0159i, ov\u011b\u0159ova\u010di faktick\u00fdch tvrzen\u00ed, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edci, platformy a m\u00edstn\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i mus\u00ed v\u011bd\u011bt, jak si vym\u011b\u0148ovat informace p\u0159ed kriz\u00ed bez toho, aby se staly n\u00e1stroji vl\u00e1dn\u00ed kontroly.<\/p>

V\u00a0prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b se v\u0161ak demokracie mus\u00ed chovat tak, aby nenapodobovaly syst\u00e9my, proti kter\u00fdm stoj\u00ed. Odolnost spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00a0jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je dost rychl\u00e9 na to, aby obr\u00e1nilo volby, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 dost opatrn\u00e9 na to, aby tato obrana nezni\u010dila d\u016fv\u011bru, kterou si chce zachovat.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On August 14, 2026, the European Values Center for Security Policy, in cooperation with the Czech-Taiwanese Business Chamber, organized the webinar \u201cThe Evidence Problem: What Democracies Can Prove About Election Interference \u2014 and What They Can Do About It.\u201d Bringing together Ras\u0165o Ku\u017eel, M\u0103d\u0103lin Nec\u0219u\u021bu, Dr. Eve Chiu, and Dr. Yu-Hsi Liu, the discussion examined […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":44508,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[379,514,492],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44507","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-events","category-past-events","category-taiwan-office"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Evidence Problem: What Democracies Can Prove About Election Interference \u2014 and What They Can Do About It - European Values Center for Security 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