{"id":38169,"date":"2024-11-12T12:03:15","date_gmt":"2024-11-12T10:03:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/?p=38169"},"modified":"2024-11-13T19:30:32","modified_gmt":"2024-11-13T17:30:32","slug":"america-first-indo-pacific-second","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/cs\/america-first-indo-pacific-second\/","title":{"rendered":"Amerika na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b, Indo-Pacifik na druh\u00e9m?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Co se d\u011bje?<\/h2>

5. listopadu 2024 do\u0161lo k historick\u00e9mu n\u00e1vratu na sc\u00e9nu. Ob\u010dan\u00e9 Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f si ve volb\u00e1ch op\u011bt zvolili za sv\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda J. Trumpa<\/strong>. Trumpova vl\u00e1da v druh\u00e9m funk\u010dn\u00edm obdob\u00ed, a zejm\u00e9na jeho zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed politika, budou m\u00edt v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed a ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro zbytek sv\u011bta. Vzhledem k prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edm prom\u011bn\u00e1m glob\u00e1ln\u00edho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed a Trumpov\u011b impulzivit\u011b a rozporuplnosti jeho v\u00fdrok\u016f a rozhodnut\u00ed, zahajuje budouc\u00ed prezidentstv\u00ed Donalda Trumpa ve sv\u011btov\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitostech novou \u00e9ru nejistoty a nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/h2>

Jak\u00e9 jsou \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed souvislosti?<\/h2>

Joe Biden ve sv\u00e9m zahrani\u010dn\u011b-politick\u00e9m postoji k Indo-Pacifiku up\u0159ednost\u0148oval<\/a> multilater\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup a vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b alianc\u00ed a partnerstv\u00ed navazovan\u00fdch ad hoc<\/strong> s c\u00edlem zadr\u017eovat mocensk\u00fd vliv \u010c\u00edny v regionu. Vzhledem k v\u0161eobecn\u00e9mu o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee Trumpova druh\u00e1 administrativa bude up\u0159ednost\u0148ovat sp\u00ed\u0161e bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm vztah\u016fm zalo\u017een\u00fd na principu vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9ho prosp\u011bchu<\/strong>, bude v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch letech v\u00fdvoj t\u011bchto vazeb mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdmi hr\u00e1\u010di na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u011b rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed. V tomto vyd\u00e1n\u00ed se na\u0161i analytici pokus\u00ed p\u0159edlo\u017eit sv\u00e9 p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 odhady budouc\u00edho v\u00fdvoje vztah\u016f Washingtonu s jeho kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdmi partnery a soupe\u0159i v indopacifick\u00e9m regionu b\u011bhem n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch let.<\/p>

JAPONSKO<\/h3>

Japonsko je od konce druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v asijskopacifick\u00e9m regionu jedn\u00edm z kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch partner\u016f USA. Ned\u00e1vno se vr\u00e1tilo na pozici t\u0159et\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomiky sv\u011bta<\/strong> a navzdory pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edmu strm\u00e9mu poklesu po\u010dtu obyvatel z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 tak\u00e9 12. nejlidnat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zem\u00ed<\/strong>. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jsou pro Japonsko rovn\u011b\u017e d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm partnerem, a to zejm\u00e9na v oblasti obrany, nebo\u0165 Washington zahrnuje Tokio pod sv\u016fj \u201ejadern\u00fd de\u0161tn\u00edk\u201c<\/strong>. Krom\u011b toho je v Japonsku rozm\u00edst\u011bno t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 55 000<\/a> americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f. Japonsko ned\u00e1vno pro\u0161lo politick\u00fdm zem\u011bt\u0159esen\u00edm<\/a>, kdy\u017e vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed koalice veden\u00e1 Liber\u00e1ln\u011b demokratickou stranou ztratila v\u011bt\u0161inu<\/strong> a nov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da se teprve formuje. Navzdory v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm zm\u011bn\u00e1m na obou stran\u00e1ch Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu se v\u0161ak o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee vztahy mezi USA a Japonskem z\u016fstanou stabiln\u00ed. Ji\u017e b\u011bhem sv\u00e9ho prvn\u00edho funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed udr\u017eoval Trump velmi dobr\u00e9 vztahy s tehdej\u0161\u00edm premi\u00e9rem \u0160inz\u00f3 Abem<\/strong> (zavra\u017ed\u011bn\u00fdm v roce 2022). Sou\u010dasn\u00fd premi\u00e9r \u0160igeru I\u0161iba<\/strong> Trumpovi k jeho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed telefonicky poblahop\u0159\u00e1l a dohodli se, \u017ee se co nejd\u0159\u00edve osobn\u011b setkaj\u00ed a pozvednou japonsko-americk\u00e9 spojenectv\u00ed na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148<\/strong>. Po telefon\u00e1tu I\u0161iba p\u0159ed novin\u00e1\u0159i poznamenal<\/a>, \u017ee Trump zn\u011bl p\u0159\u00e1telsky a \u017ee s n\u00edm m\u016f\u017ee mluvit otev\u0159en\u011b a bez p\u0159\u00edkras.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/h2>

JI\u017dN\u00cd KOREA<\/h3>

Spojenectv\u00ed Washingtonu a Soulu vykazovalo zn\u00e1mky nap\u011bt\u00ed ji\u017e b\u011bhem prvn\u00ed Trumpovy vl\u00e1dy. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 v\u00a0tomto ohledu je, \u017ee se do pop\u0159ed\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee op\u011bt dostat ot\u00e1zka sd\u00edlen\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f na obranu,<\/strong> \u010d\u00edm\u017e bude na Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreu vyv\u00edjen zna\u010dn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd a diplomatick\u00fd tlak. Trumpova politika v\u016f\u010di Pchjongjangu sice ve sv\u00e9m z\u00e1kladu obsahuje prvky snahy o \u201eusm\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed\u201c, ne\u0159e\u0161\u00ed v\u0161ak komplexn\u011b ot\u00e1zku severokorejsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho zbrojen\u00ed<\/strong>. Pokud se druh\u00e1 Trumpova administrativa rozhodne pokra\u010dovat ve spolupr\u00e1ci s Pchjongjangem, mohou mezi Washingtonem a Soulem vyvstat dal\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9my v koordinaci zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky, kter\u00e9 zpochybn\u00ed vedouc\u00ed \u00falohu Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje v t\u011bchto ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch. Nav\u00edc Trumpova obchodn\u00ed politika \u201eAmerika na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b\u201c bude tentokr\u00e1t pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b je\u0161t\u011b agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a protekcionisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edstavovat nov\u00e1 cla a obchodn\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky pro korejsk\u00fd exportn\u00ed pr\u016fmysl<\/strong>, zejm\u00e9na pro polovodi\u010de a automobilov\u00fd sektor. Trump\u016fv tvrd\u00fd postoj v\u016f\u010di \u010c\u00edn\u011b \u010din\u00ed choulostiv\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi tak\u00e9 vztahy mezi Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreou a \u010c\u00ednou. Spletitost t\u011bchto geopolitick\u00fdch a ekonomick\u00fdch vazeb znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Soul mus\u00ed opatrn\u011b udr\u017eovat strategickou rovnov\u00e1hu mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou, co\u017e bude od veden\u00ed Korejsk\u00e9 republiky vy\u017eadovat zna\u010dnou p\u00e9\u010di a pozornost.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/h3>

\u010c\u00cdNA<\/h3>

V \u010c\u00edn\u011b americk\u00e9 volby nedominovaly ve\u0159ejn\u00fdm diskuz\u00edm do stejn\u00e9 m\u00edry, jako tomu bylo b\u011bhem prvn\u00edho zvolen\u00ed Donalda Trumpa. Z\u00a0\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho pohledu bude obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b pokra\u010dovat<\/strong> bez ohledu na v\u00fdsledek voleb. P\u0159esto\u017ee Trump\u016fv postoj v\u016f\u010di \u010c\u00edn\u011b je ost\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed, jeho charismatick\u00e1 a z\u00e1bavn\u00e1 pers\u00f3na m\u00e1 pro tradi\u010dn\u011b konzervativn\u00ed \u010d\u00ednskou spole\u010dnost v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ita\u017elivost ne\u017e demokratka Kamala Harris. Trump\u016fv p\u0159\u00edstup \u201eAmerika na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b\u201c doprov\u00e1zen\u00fd slibem uvalen\u00ed 60 % cel na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd dovoz, jako\u017eto i hrozby, \u017ee podnikne n\u011bco \u201e\u0161\u00edlen\u00e9ho\u201c, pokud se \u010c\u00edna pokus\u00ed napadnout Tchaj-wan, dozajista vzbuzuj\u00ed obavy \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed, kter\u00e9 v sou\u010dasnosti usilovn\u011b \u0159e\u0161\u00ed, jak stabilizovat \u010d\u00ednskou ekonomiku. Trumpova zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee tak\u00e9 v\u00e1\u017en\u011b naru\u0161it vztahy Washingtonu s\u00a0jeho demokratick\u00fdmi spojenci<\/strong> a\u00a0zp\u016fsobit tak dal\u0161\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed, kter\u00e9ho by \u010c\u00edna mohla vyu\u017e\u00edt pro pos\u00edlen\u00ed sv\u00e9ho vlivu.<\/strong> P\u0159edchoz\u00ed Trumpovy interakce nemus\u00ed nutn\u011b nazna\u010dovat, \u017ee Trump obdivuje p\u0159\u00edstup \u201etvrd\u00e9 ruky\u201c, kter\u00fd charakterizuje vl\u00e1du sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho v\u016fdce. Trumpovu zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku lze nicm\u00e9n\u011b popsat jedn\u00edm kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm adjektivem, na kter\u00e9m se shoduj\u00ed snad v\u0161ichni pozorovatel\u00e9: \u201enep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e1\u201c. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzva pro \u010c\u00ednu proto spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z Trumpovy osobnosti<\/strong> a v obt\u00ed\u017enosti p\u0159edj\u00edmat jeho dal\u0161\u00ed politick\u00e9 kroky.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/h3>

TCHAJ-WAN<\/h3>

B\u011bhem Trumpova prvn\u00edho prezidentstv\u00ed podepsaly Tchaj-wan a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty n\u011bkolik dohod usnad\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch jejich vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 styky, co\u017e vedlo obdob\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 interakce<\/strong> mezi t\u011bmito dv\u011bma zem\u011bmi. Tyto dohody odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9 obavy z rostouc\u00edho vlivu \u010c\u00edny a jejich c\u00edlem je pos\u00edlit \u00fa\u010dast Tchaj-wanu na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u011b a schopnost jeho sebeobrany. Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st diskus\u00ed kolem americk\u00fdch voleb se soust\u0159edila na to, zda bude i nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed administrativa pokra\u010dovat v siln\u00e9 podpo\u0159e Tchaj-wanu. Mluv\u010d\u00ed vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed Demokratick\u00e9 pokrokov\u00e9 strany (DPP) Chan Jing (\u97d3\u7469) ve sv\u00e9m prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed zd\u016fraznila<\/a>, \u017ee vztahy mezi Tchaj-wanem a Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty jsou \u201esk\u00e1lopevn\u00e9\u201c, a vyzdvihla, \u017ee ve Washingtonu<\/strong> panuje siln\u00fd konsenzus mezi ob\u011bma politick\u00fdmi stranami na tom, \u017ee Tchaj-wan podporuj\u00ed<\/strong> \u2013 tento postoj, jak poznamenala, z\u016fstane nezm\u011bn\u011bn bez ohledu na v\u00fdsledky voleb. Eric Chu (\u010cu Li-lun \u6731\u7acb\u502b), p\u0159edseda hlavn\u00ed opozi\u010dn\u00ed strany Kuomintang (KMT) uznal, \u017ee <\/strong>Trumpovo prvn\u00ed funk\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed<\/strong><\/a> bylo obdob\u00edm schv\u00e1len\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pro-tchajwansk\u00e9 legislativy a podpory tchajwansk\u00e9 sebeobrany<\/strong>. Tchajwansk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Lin \u0164ia-lung (\u6797\u4f73\u9f8d) rovn\u011b\u017e poznamenal, \u017ee Tchaj-wan by vzhledem ke sv\u00e9 z\u00e1sadn\u00ed \u00faloze v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm mikro\u010dipov\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu mohl sehr\u00e1t kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli<\/strong><\/a> v tom, \u017ee by nov\u011b zvolen\u00e9mu americk\u00e9mu prezidentovi Donaldu Trumpovi pomohl naplnit jeho vizi \u201eMake America Great Again<\/em>\u201c. Tchajwan\u0161t\u00ed odborn\u00edci vyjad\u0159uj\u00ed <\/strong>r\u016fznorod\u00e9 n\u00e1zory<\/strong><\/a> na to, zda by nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed administrativa vy\u010dlenila americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly na obranu Tchaj-wanu v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 invaze. Poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edstup Washingtonu k Tchaj-wanu<\/a> bude v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch \u010dty\u0159ech letech pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b \u201enep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fd\u201c<\/strong>.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/h2>

Pro\u010d je to d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9?<\/h2>

Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed postoje Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch vztah\u016f Washingtonu s partnery v indopacifick\u00e9m regionu \u2013 neklidn\u00e9 to oblasti glob\u00e1ln\u00ed geopolitiky \u2013 budou i nad\u00e1le ur\u010dovat rozlo\u017een\u00ed sil ve sv\u011bt\u011b. Na rozd\u00edl od mnoha jin\u00fdch volebn\u00edch kl\u00e1n\u00ed v tomto \u201evolebn\u00edm super-roce\u201c maj\u00ed americk\u00e9 volby celosv\u011btov\u00fd v\u00fdznam, proto\u017ee politika, v\u016fd\u010d\u00ed role a zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vztahy Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f maj\u00ed dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e9 d\u016fsledky. V kontextu indopacifick\u00e9ho regionu je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejkriti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edm zmi\u0148ovan\u00fdm pojmem role Washingtonu jako vl\u00eddn\u00e9ho hegemona<\/em><\/strong> \u2013 jako poskytovatele ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch statk\u016f, mezi n\u011b\u017e pat\u0159\u00ed zejm\u00e9na bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky, otev\u0159en\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed cesty a krizov\u00e9 intervence, z nich\u017e maj\u00ed prosp\u011bch jak Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, tak i jin\u00e9 zem\u011b. Strach z \u201enep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti\u201c, kter\u00fd se nyn\u00ed objevuje nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d demokratick\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi Indo-Pacifiku, nahlod\u00e1v\u00e1 dlouhodob\u011b za\u017eitou dynamiku v regionu, kter\u00e1 m\u00edstn\u00edm vl\u00e1d\u00e1m umo\u017e\u0148ovala spol\u00e9hat se na Washington, pokud jde o v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 statky. Potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed vznik mocensk\u00e9ho vakua v\u00a0Indo-Pacifiku tak m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro bezpe\u010dnost a stabilitu cel\u00e9ho regionu, nebo\u0165 \u010c\u00edna aspiruj\u00edc\u00ed na roli autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho hegemona se m\u016f\u017ee sna\u017eit tuto mezeru zaplnit.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What is happening? November 5, 2024, witnessed a historic comeback: citizens of the United States have once again elected Donald J. Trump as their president. Trump\u2019s rule, and his foreign and security policy in particular, will have significant security and economic implications for the rest of the globe. Given the ongoing changes in the global […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":38170,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[500],"tags":[506,520,495,538,552,534],"class_list":["post-38169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-david-toman","tag-elaine-ko","tag-marcin-jerzewski","tag-olimpia-kot","tag-ondrej-malek","tag-zuzana-koskova"],"yoast_head":"\nAmerica First, Indo-Pacific Second? - European Values Center for Security Policy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/cs\/america-first-indo-pacific-second\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"America First, Indo-Pacific Second? - European Values Center for Security Policy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What is happening? November 5, 2024, witnessed a historic comeback: citizens of the United States have once again elected Donald J. Trump as their president. Trump\u2019s rule, and his foreign and security policy in particular, will have significant security and economic implications for the rest of the globe. 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