{"id":3445,"date":"2016-10-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2016-10-28T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/pojmenovanym-hrozbam-lze-celit\/"},"modified":"2021-12-16T12:25:11","modified_gmt":"2021-12-16T10:25:11","slug":"pojmenovanym-hrozbam-lze-celit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/cs\/pojmenovanym-hrozbam-lze-celit\/","title":{"rendered":"Pojmenovan\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m lze \u010delit"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nov\u00e9 studii Evropsk\u00fdch hodnot, kter\u00e1 obsahuje sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e v\u00fdvoje bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, se dostalo reakce od Ond\u0159eje Ditrycha. Jeho text Lidov\u00e9 noviny otiskly v \u00fater\u00fd 18. 10. pod n\u00e1zvem Jak se d\u011bl\u00e1 hrozba.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Na\u0161\u00edm z\u00e1m\u011brem bylo mimo jin\u00e9 vyvol\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 diskuse o tom, na jak\u00e9 hrozby by se \u010desk\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed syst\u00e9m m\u011bl v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch t\u0159ech letech p\u0159ipravovat.<\/p>\n

Kritick\u00fd koment\u00e1\u0159 proto v\u00edt\u00e1me, ale mrz\u00ed n\u00e1s, \u017ee m\u00edsto toho, aby s na\u0161imi sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i polemizoval a nast\u00ednil n\u011bjakou alternativu, z\u016fstal u pokusu o zpochybn\u011bn\u00ed na\u0161\u00ed odbornosti. Ne v\u0161ak t\u00edm, \u017ee by rozporoval cokoliv v na\u0161em metodologick\u00e9m postupu, ale pouh\u00fdm tvrzen\u00edm, \u017ee na\u0161e z\u00e1v\u011bry pova\u017euje za absurdn\u00ed, zveli\u010den\u00e9 \u010di zkreslen\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Studii nazvanou \u201eSc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e v\u00fdvoje politicko-bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed z pohledu \u010cR: 2016\u20132019\u201cjsme vytvo\u0159ili na z\u00e1klad\u011b osv\u011bd\u010den\u00e9 metody Delphi, do n\u00ed\u017e se mezi dubnem a z\u00e1\u0159\u00edm 2016 zapojilo \u010dty\u0159iadvacet respondent\u016f z \u0159ad p\u0159edn\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch expert\u016f \u010desk\u00fdch akademick\u00fdch, nevl\u00e1dn\u00edch, bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch a zpravodajsk\u00fdch instituc\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Na z\u00e1klad\u011b jejich odborn\u00fdch odpov\u011bd\u00ed jsme formulovali jak seznam mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch akt\u00e9r\u016f a hrozeb, kter\u00e9 budou m\u00edt nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dopad na bezpe\u010dnost \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky, tak i faktor\u016f, trend\u016f a zlom\u016f, kter\u00e9 budou m\u00edt hlavn\u00ed vliv na jejich prom\u011bnu.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdraznou \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed studie jsou \u010dty\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 nepova\u017eujeme za nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ale nejz\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pro bezpe\u010dnost \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky, proto\u017ee mohou ohrozit liber\u00e1ln\u011b-demokratick\u00fd charakter na\u0161eho politick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu (p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed ohodnocen\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnosti, \u017ee se jednotliv\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti i samotn\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e napln\u00ed, je prost\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem odhad\u016f jednotliv\u00fdch expert\u016f):<\/p>\n

1. Nekontrolovan\u00e1 masov\u00e1 migrace zap\u0159\u00ed\u010din\u00ed politickou implozi (zhroucen\u00ed) n\u011bkter\u00fdch evropsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f \u2013 60 procent.<\/p>\n

2. Z\u00e1padoevrop\u0161t\u00ed demokrati\u010dt\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i politicky prohraj\u00ed boj s islamismem \u2013 60 procent.<\/p>\n

3. Prezidentka Marine Le Penov\u00e1 d\u00e1 definitivn\u00ed r\u00e1nu evropsk\u00e9 integraci \u2013 40 procent.<\/p>\n

4. Rusk\u00e1 agrese zni\u010d\u00ed legitimitu NATO a zap\u0159\u00ed\u010din\u00ed appeasement v \u010cesku \u2013 30 procent.<\/p>\n

Zn\u00ed to d\u011bsiv\u011b, ale i k t\u011bmto eventualit\u00e1m m\u016f\u017eeme doj\u00edt, pokud jako \u010cR, Evropsk\u00e1 unie a NATO neza\u010dneme br\u00e1t prokazateln\u011b existuj\u00edc\u00ed hrozby v\u00e1\u017en\u011b a neza\u010dneme intenzivn\u011b pracovat na jejich prevenci. Kolega Ditrych nezpochyb\u0148uje v\u00fdznam a smysl prom\u00fd\u0161len\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f v\u00fdvoje, pouze ty na\u0161e pova\u017euje za p\u0159ehnan\u00e9. Toto tvrzen\u00ed by m\u011bl ale doprovodit konkr\u00e9tn\u00edmi faktory a trendy, d\u00edky kter\u00fdm k na\u0161im extr\u00e9mn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016fm nedojde.<\/p>\n

My t\u011bch pozitivn\u00edch tendenc\u00ed bohu\u017eel moc identifikovat nem\u016f\u017eeme, a proto je na\u0161e studie varov\u00e1n\u00edm a v\u00fdzvou k reform\u011b bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, dokud je je\u0161t\u011b \u010das.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, abychom pak v krizov\u00fdch situac\u00edch nemuseli ukvapen\u011b p\u0159ij\u00edmat mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed omezuj\u00edc\u00ed osobn\u00ed svobody a demokratick\u00e9 instituce.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Radko Hokovsk\u00fd<\/a>\u00a0je v\u00fdkonn\u00fdm \u0159editelem think-tanku Evropsk\u00e9 hodnoty.<\/em><\/p>\n

Text p\u016fvodn\u011b vy\u0161el 24. \u0159\u00edjna 2016 v Lidov\u00fdch novin\u00e1ch.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nov\u00e9 studii Evropsk\u00fdch hodnot, kter\u00e1 obsahuje sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e v\u00fdvoje bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, se dostalo reakce od Ond\u0159eje Ditrycha. Jeho text Lidov\u00e9 noviny otiskly v \u00fater\u00fd 18. 10. pod n\u00e1zvem Jak se d\u011bl\u00e1 hrozba.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":15647,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[461],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3445","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-press-releases"],"yoast_head":"\nPojmenovan\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m lze \u010delit - European Values Center for Security Policy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/cs\/pojmenovanym-hrozbam-lze-celit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pojmenovan\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m lze \u010delit - European Values Center for Security Policy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nov\u00e9 studii Evropsk\u00fdch hodnot, kter\u00e1 obsahuje sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e v\u00fdvoje bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, se dostalo reakce od Ond\u0159eje Ditrycha. 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