{"id":2924,"date":"2013-09-25T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2013-09-25T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/patri-ukrajina-k-rusku\/"},"modified":"2021-12-16T12:24:50","modified_gmt":"2021-12-16T10:24:50","slug":"patri-ukrajina-k-rusku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/cs\/patri-ukrajina-k-rusku\/","title":{"rendered":"Pat\u0159\u00ed Ukrajina (k) Rusku?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Novembrov\u00fd summit V\u00fdchodn\u00e9ho partnerstva vo Vilniuse sa bl\u00ed\u017ei a je zaru\u010den\u00e9, \u017ee u\u017e aj tak vysok\u00e9 nap\u00e4tie sa bude na v\u0161etk\u00fdch frontoch len stup\u0148ova\u0165. Slovn\u00e9 spojenia ako \u201cobchodn\u00e1 vojna<\/em>\u201d a \u201cekonomick\u00e1 samovra\u017eda<\/em>\u201d s\u00fa v m\u00e9di\u00e1ch na dennom poriadku opisuj\u00fac a\u0161pir\u00e1ciu Ukrajiny podp\u00edsa\u0165 asocia\u010dn\u00fa dohodu s Eur\u00f3pskou \u00faniou. R\u00e9torika Ukrajiny je jedna vec a realita druh\u00e1 \u2013 Andrew Wilson ju vystihol skvele ke\u010f\u00a0nap\u00edsal<\/a>: \u201c\u2026\u00a0cel\u00e1 hist\u00f3ria Ukrajiny m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 nap\u00edsan\u00e1 z poh\u013eadu jej oscil\u00e1cie medzi dvoma stranami<\/em>\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n

N\u00e1v\u0161tevy, z\u00e1kazy a \u010do na to \u013eudia?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Posledn\u00e1 n\u00e1v\u0161teva Vladim\u00edra Putina pri pr\u00edle\u017eitosti 1025-ho v\u00fdro\u010dia kristianiz\u00e1cie Rusi v Kyjeve bola ostro sledovan\u00e1 svetov\u00fdmi m\u00e9diami. Jej re\u00e1lne v\u00fdstupy je \u0165a\u017eko s\u00fadi\u0165, nako\u013eko ofici\u00e1lna \u010das\u0165 programu neumo\u017enila vyjadrenia k bud\u00facnosti Ukrajiny. Naopak je ist\u00e9, \u017ee osobn\u00e9 stretnutie prezidentov sa tejto t\u00e9my bezpochyby dotklo. V\u00fdsledok v\u0161ak vidie\u0165 nebolo a r\u00f4zni analitici \u0161pekuluj\u00fa sk\u00f4r o negat\u00edvnych dopadoch na Rusko-Ukrajinsk\u00e9 vz\u0165ahy, pr\u00edpadne, \u017ee n\u00e1v\u0161teva Putina mala mal\u00fd dopad na aktu\u00e1lne smerovanie Ukrajiny. Manifest\u00e1cia Rusko-Ukrajinskej jednoty a bl\u00edzkosti m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 pova\u017eovan\u00e1 za snahu Moskvy pripomen\u00fa\u0165 Ukrajincom, kto je ich \u201chistoricky a kult\u00farne bl\u00edzky n\u00e1rod\u201c.<\/p>\n

Najnov\u0161ia ot\u00e1zka v\u0161ak stoj\u00ed \u00faplne inak: Ako \u010faleko je ochotn\u00e9 Rusko z\u00e1js\u0165 v snahe odradi\u0165 Ukrajinu od podpisu asocia\u010dnej dohody s E\u00da a v prezent\u00e1cii svojho vplyvu v regi\u00f3ne?<\/p>\n

Nieko\u013eko hod\u00edn po n\u00e1v\u0161teve Vladimira Putina sa m\u00e9di\u00e1 za\u010dali zap\u013a\u0148a\u0165 spr\u00e1vami o z\u00e1kaze dovozu ukrajinsk\u00fdch sladkost\u00ed zna\u010dky Roshen do Ruskej feder\u00e1cie. V n\u00e1slednosti na rozhodnutie Ruska sa k tomuto z\u00e1kazu pridali aj \u010fal\u0161ie \u0161t\u00e1ty colnej \u00fanie \u2013 Bielorusko a Kazachstan. Ofici\u00e1lny d\u00f4vod z\u00e1kazu s\u00fa \u201eslab\u00e9 \u0161tandardy kvality\u201c, ktor\u00e9, slovami riadite\u013ea Rospotrebnadzor (Feder\u00e1lna slu\u017eba kontroly v sf\u00e9re ochrany pr\u00e1v spotrebite\u013eov) Genadia Oni\u0161enka, \u201es\u00fa podpriemern\u00e9\u201c. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 Rospotrebnadzor vydal vyhl\u00e1senie o pr\u00edtomnosti karcinog\u00e9nnych l\u00e1tok v produktoch Roshen. Politika alebo realita?<\/p>\n

\u010eal\u0161\u00ed z vystr\u010den\u00fdch prstov Ruska pri\u0161iel na za\u010diatku augusta, kedy Rusko podniklo prv\u00e9 kroky k pr\u00edsnej\u0161\u00edm coln\u00fdm kontrol\u00e1m na Rusko-Ukrajinskej hranici v pr\u00edpade, \u017ee Ukrajina podp\u00ed\u0161e asocia\u010dn\u00fa dohodu. K zostreniu celej situ\u00e1cie prispieva fakt, \u017ee Rusko je hlavn\u00fdm odberate\u013eom ukrajinsk\u00e9ho exportu a tak\u00fdto krok m\u00f4\u017ee ma\u0165 v\u00e1\u017ene n\u00e1sledky pre ekonomick\u00fa situ\u00e1ciu Ukrajiny. Postupn\u00fd prechod od tich\u00fdch varovan\u00ed k v\u00e1\u017enym krokom poukazuje na d\u00f4le\u017eitos\u0165 Ukrajiny pre Rusko a jeho snahy vytvori\u0165 region\u00e1lne integra\u010dn\u00e9 zoskupenie \u2013 Eur\u00e1zijsk\u00fa \u00faniu. Napriek tomu, \u017ee Eur\u00f3pska \u00fania (E\u00da) tak\u00e9to spr\u00e1vanie ods\u00fadila, je m\u00e1lo sp\u00f4sobov ako by mohla Rusko prin\u00fati\u0165 k zmene postoja.<\/p>\n

M\u00f4\u017eu by\u0165 v krajine so slabou nez\u00e1vislos\u0165ou s\u00fadov a extr\u00e9mnou korupciou rozhoduj\u00facim faktorom pr\u00e1ve ob\u010dania? T\u00ed v tom tie\u017e nemaj\u00fa ve\u013emi jasno, av\u0161ak posledn\u00e9 zmeny v sociologick\u00fdch prieskumoch nazna\u010duj\u00fa sk\u00f4r tendenciu smerova\u0165 k E\u00da ako k colnej \u00fanii Ruska, Bieloruska a Kazachstanu. Prieskumy Razumkovho centra medzi m\u00e1jom a j\u00fanom 2013 uk\u00e1zali, \u017ee po\u010det ob\u010danov, ktor\u00ed si za preferovan\u00fa cestu integr\u00e1cie zvolili E\u00da, vzr\u00e1stol zo 41,7% na 42%. Opa\u010dn\u00fd t\u00e1bor, zast\u00e1vaj\u00faci coln\u00fa \u00faniu Ruska, Bieloruska a Kazachstanu, preferovalo v m\u00e1ji 32,7% a v j\u00fani 31% obyvate\u013eov. Najnov\u0161ie prieskumy agent\u00fary Rating Group Ukraine z minul\u00e9ho mesiaca v\u0161ak nazna\u010duj\u00fa o nie\u010do pozit\u00edvnej\u0161ie z\u00e1very pre coln\u00fa \u00faniu, ktorej pripisuj\u00fa preferenciu a\u017e 40% ob\u010danov, zatia\u013e \u010do eur\u00f3psku cestu si vybralo 43%. Ukrajinci sa pohybuj\u00fa vo ve\u013emi bipol\u00e1rnom probl\u00e9me, v ktorom sa kompromisy h\u013eadaj\u00fa \u0165a\u017eko a rozhoduj\u00faca majorita sa zatia\u013e na ob\u010dianskej \u00farovni nesformovala. Pre politick\u00e9 elity teda prieskumy verejnej mienky neposl\u00fa\u017eia ako pomocn\u00e9 vod\u00edtko k rie\u0161eniu.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u010co na to E\u00da?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Akej realite \u010del\u00ed E\u00da? Rozpoltenej \u2013 na jednej stane stoj\u00ed pred mor\u00e1lnym rozhodnut\u00edm vy\u017eadova\u0165 prepustenie J\u00falie Tymo\u0161enko, ktor\u00e1 sa medzi\u010dasom stala sex-symbolom skorumpovan\u00e9ho s\u00fadnictva, nesmierneho rodink\u00e1rstva a priepas\u0165ou medzi elitami a \u201cplebsom\u201c. Na druhej strane m\u00f4\u017ee E\u00da mierne ust\u00fapi\u0165 v dobrej viere, \u017ee veci na Ukrajine sa zmenia pod jej demokratiza\u010dn\u00fdm tlakom, v snahe udr\u017ea\u0165 si z\u00e1ujem a pozornos\u0165 Ukrajiny. Prv\u00e1 mo\u017enos\u0165 prin\u00e1\u0161a nebezpe\u010denstvo, \u017ee ponuka E\u00da nebude dostato\u010dne atrakt\u00edvna a cel\u00e1 politika V\u00fdchodn\u00e9ho partnerstva zlyh\u00e1, preto\u017ee krajiny sa oto\u010dia smerom k Rusku z \u010disto pragmatick\u00fdch pr\u00ed\u010din \u2013 okam\u017eit\u00e9 v\u00fdhody. V pr\u00edpade druhom si E\u00da odnesie siln\u00fa kritiku, \u017ee kompromituje svoje hodnoty, na ktor\u00fdch je postaven\u00e1. Av\u0161ak nestrat\u00ed Ukrajinu, ktor\u00fa m\u00f4\u017ee n\u00e1sledne d\u00e1va\u0165 za vzor ako \u00faspe\u0161n\u00fd pr\u00edbeh svojim region\u00e1lnym partnerom. Ukrajina nakoniec m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 rozhoduj\u00facim bodom o \u00faspe\u0161nosti V\u00fdchodn\u00e9ho partnerstva a z\u00e1rove\u0148 rozhoduj\u00faca o podobe spolupr\u00e1ce E\u00da s krajinami vo v\u00fdchodnej Eur\u00f3pe.<\/p>\n

Od vzniku politiky V\u00fdchodn\u00e9ho partnerstva si E\u00da viackr\u00e1t zahrala rolu troch op\u00edc, z ktor\u00fdch v\u017edy jedna nevid\u00ed, nepo\u010duje alebo nehovor\u00ed. Ukrajine sme viac-menej tolerovali ot\u00e1zne vytvorenie Azarovovej vl\u00e1dy v roku 2010 len v\u010faka poslancom, ktor\u00ed kr\u00e1tko po vo\u013eb\u00e1ch \u00faspe\u0161ne prezliekli kab\u00e1ty, rovnako aj zru\u0161enie \u00fastavn\u00e9ho dodatku, ktor\u00fd na \u0161es\u0165 rokov decentralizoval moc na Ukrajine, a taktie\u017e dlhoro\u010dn\u00fa implement\u00e1ciu demokratiza\u010dn\u00fdch opatren\u00ed \u2018\u00e1 la carte\u2018, len ak sa n\u00e1hodou hodili vl\u00e1dnucej elite.<\/p>\n

Ukrajina m\u00e1 ve\u013ea in\u00fdch probl\u00e9mov, ktor\u00e9 vy\u017eaduj\u00fa rie\u0161enie \u2013 a zdravotn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my J\u00falie Tymo\u0161enko, ktor\u00e9 s\u00fa naj\u010dastej\u0161ie spom\u00ednan\u00e9 v m\u00e9di\u00e1ch, nimi v porovnan\u00ed s v\u00e1\u017enej\u0161\u00edmi vn\u00fatro\u0161t\u00e1tnymi zlyhaniami nie s\u00fa. E\u00da sa mierne zasekla v tom, \u010d\u00edm medi\u00e1lne podmie\u0148uje podpis asocia\u010dnej dohody a neuvedomuje si, \u017ee t\u00fdm tla\u010d\u00ed Ukrajinu do rohu. Paradoxne, u\u017e ani nov\u00e1 opoz\u00edcia, ktor\u00e1 v uplynulom roku nabrala na sile, nie je \u00faplne nad\u0161en\u00e1 zo scen\u00e1ru prepustenia Tymo\u0161enko, ob\u00e1vaj\u00fac sa straty \u010dasti svojej sily a r\u00fdchlosti, ktor\u00fa za posledn\u00fd rok nabrala.<\/p>\n

Mali by sme viac ust\u00fapi\u0165 alebo slepo st\u00e1\u0165 za overen\u00fdmi princ\u00edpmi? Aj slab\u00e9 zisky na Ukrajine bud\u00fa mal\u00fdm v\u00ed\u0165azstvom, oproti mo\u017enosti \u00faplnej straty Ukrajiny v prospech Ruska.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ratifik\u00e1cia\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kam sa \u010dasto diskusia vlastne ani nedostane, je potreba ratifik\u00e1cie asocia\u010dnej dohody. Podpis asocia\u010dnej dohody je samozrejme podmienen\u00fd z\u00e1sadn\u00fdmi vn\u00fatorn\u00fdmi zmenami v Ukrajine, ktor\u00e9 by E\u00da dodali istotu o re\u00e1lnom z\u00e1mere Ukrajiny sta\u0165 sa eur\u00f3pskym \u0161t\u00e1tom.<\/p>\n

Z medzin\u00e1rodn\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska by po podpise nasledovalo ve\u013emi \u0165a\u017ek\u00e9 obdobie pre Ukrajinu. Predpoveda\u0165 reakciu Ruska na stratu d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9ho partnera je ve\u013emi \u0165a\u017ek\u00e9, ale u\u017e spom\u00ednan\u00e9 spr\u00edsnenie coln\u00fdch kontrol a \u010fal\u0161ie ob\u0161trukcie v obchode by Ukrajinu st\u00e1li mnoho pe\u0148az\u00ed. Pomoc zo strany E\u00da na uhladenie rusk\u00fdch tlakov bude v nedoh\u013eadne za barik\u00e1dou ratifik\u00e1cie. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 ob\u010dianske protesty na v\u00fdchode Ukrajiny, \u010dasti, ktor\u00e1 najsilnej\u0161ie prejavuje svoju sp\u00e4tos\u0165 s Ruskom, m\u00f4\u017eu znamena\u0165 \u010fal\u0161ie vyhrotenie situ\u00e1cie. Na druhej strane stoj\u00ed ot\u00e1zka, \u010di podpisom asocia\u010dnej dohody E\u00da nepotvrd\u00ed svoju ned\u00f4slednos\u0165 a neschopnos\u0165 re\u00e1lne meni\u0165 veci a nestrat\u00ed t\u00fdm \u010das\u0165 svojho dosahu na Ukrajinu.<\/p>\n

D\u00f4vodov, pre\u010do sa s ratifik\u00e1ciou m\u00f4\u017ee vyskytn\u00fa\u0165 ve\u013ek\u00fd problem, je viacero: V prvom rade, \u00faprimne povedan\u00e9, \u013eudia v strednej Eur\u00f3pe vedia o Ukrajine m\u00e1lo a \u013eudia v z\u00e1padnej… menej. Ratifikova\u0165 zmluvu bud\u00fa n\u00e1rodn\u00e9 parlamenty a pokia\u013e m\u00e9di\u00e1 bud\u00fa p\u00edsa\u0165 o Ukrajine ako o pekelnej diere, tak na\u0161im z\u00e1padn\u00fdm susedom mo\u017eno vy\u010d\u00edta\u0165 nez\u00e1ujem o ratifik\u00e1ciu len \u0165a\u017eko. \u010ealej treba zobra\u0165 do \u00favahy nadch\u00e1dzaj\u00face vo\u013eby do Eur\u00f3pskeho parlamentu v roku 2014 a kon\u010diaci mand\u00e1t Barrosovej Eur\u00f3pskej komisie v tom istom roku. Summa summarum, aj pod\u013ea pozit\u00edvnejch\u0161\u00edch predpoved\u00ed sa cel\u00e1 vec pohne niekam \u010falej tak najsk\u00f4r do dvoch rokov.<\/p>\n

Treba si v\u0161ak uvedomi\u0165 d\u00f4le\u017eitos\u0165 a silu novembrovej asocia\u010dnej dohody: Za prv\u00e9 je to dokument, ktor\u00fd d\u00e1va bezprecedentn\u00fa moc E\u00da nad dom\u00e1cimi z\u00e1le\u017eitos\u0165ami ne\u010dlensk\u00e9ho \u0161t\u00e1tu. Za druh\u00e9 obsahuje ove\u013ea viac ako len dohodu o z\u00f3ne vo\u013en\u00e9ho obchodu \u2013 zav\u00e1dza pr\u00e1vne z\u00e1v\u00e4zn\u00fd r\u00e1mec umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00faci regul\u00e1cie a vyn\u00fatenie ist\u00fdch ustanoven\u00ed. Toto v\u0161etko definit\u00edvne znamen\u00e1 umier\u00e1\u010dik (um\u00edr\u00e1\u010dek<\/em>) pre Rusk\u00fd vplyv.<\/p>\n

Ner\u00e1d predpoved\u00e1m katastrofick\u00e9 scen\u00e1re, ale v pr\u00edpade, \u017ee k podpisu dohody v novembri ned\u00f4jde, m\u00f4\u017eme o\u010dak\u00e1va\u0165 hlavne negat\u00edvny v\u00fdvoj pre E\u00da, \u010do sa t\u00fdka jej vz\u0165ahu s v\u00fdchodn\u00fdmi susedmi. \u010cak\u00e1 n\u00e1s strata vplyvu E\u00da na Ukrajinu, ne\u00fanosn\u00fd tlak Ruska a zlyhanie V\u00fdchodn\u00e9ho partnerstva.<\/p>\n

Ukrajina dnes stoj\u00ed nad dvoma kopcami a \u010das na rozhodnutie, \u010di sa skot\u00fa\u013ea\u0165 na z\u00e1pad, \u010di na v\u00fdchod, sa nepr\u00edjemne kr\u00e1ti.<\/p>\n

Martin Luk\u00e1\u010d<\/a><\/em>\u00a0<\/i>je odborn\u00fd spolupracovn\u00edk think-tanku Evropsk\u00e9 hodnoty.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Novembrov\u00fd summit V\u00fdchodn\u00e9ho partnerstva vo Vilniuse sa bl\u00ed\u017ei a je zaru\u010den\u00e9, \u017ee u\u017e aj tak vysok\u00e9 nap\u00e4tie sa bude na v\u0161etk\u00fdch frontoch len stup\u0148ova\u0165. Slovn\u00e9 spojenia ako \u201cobchodn\u00e1 vojna\u201d a \u201cekonomick\u00e1 samovra\u017eda\u201d s\u00fa v m\u00e9di\u00e1ch na dennom poriadku opisuj\u00fac a\u0161pir\u00e1ciu Ukrajiny podp\u00edsa\u0165 asocia\u010dn\u00fa dohodu s Eur\u00f3pskou \u00faniou. R\u00e9torika Ukrajiny je jedna vec a realita druh\u00e1 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":15647,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[461],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2924","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-press-releases"],"yoast_head":"\nPat\u0159\u00ed Ukrajina (k) Rusku? - European Values Center for Security Policy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/europeanvalues.cz\/cs\/patri-ukrajina-k-rusku\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pat\u0159\u00ed Ukrajina (k) Rusku? - European Values Center for Security Policy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Novembrov\u00fd summit V\u00fdchodn\u00e9ho partnerstva vo Vilniuse sa bl\u00ed\u017ei a je zaru\u010den\u00e9, \u017ee u\u017e aj tak vysok\u00e9 nap\u00e4tie sa bude na v\u0161etk\u00fdch frontoch len stup\u0148ova\u0165. Slovn\u00e9 spojenia ako \u201cobchodn\u00e1 vojna\u201d a \u201cekonomick\u00e1 samovra\u017eda\u201d s\u00fa v m\u00e9di\u00e1ch na dennom poriadku opisuj\u00fac a\u0161pir\u00e1ciu Ukrajiny podp\u00edsa\u0165 asocia\u010dn\u00fa dohodu s Eur\u00f3pskou \u00faniou. 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